unintended-consequencesA colleague asked, “How do you design an evaluation that can identify unintended consequences?” This was based on a statement about methodologies that “only measure the extent to which intended results have been achieved and are not able to capture unintended outcomes (see AEA365). (The cartoon is attributed to Rob Cottingham.)

Really good question. Unintended consequences are just that–outcomes which are not what you think will happen with the program you are implementing. This is where program theory comes into play. When you model the program, you think of what you want to happen. What you want to happen is usually supported by the literature, not your gut (intuition may be useful for unintended, however). A logic model lists as outcome the “intended” outcomes (consequences). So you run your program and you get something else, not necessarily bad, just not what you expected; the outcome is unintended.

Program theory can advise you that other outcomes could happen. How do you design your evaluation so that you can capture those. Mazmanian in his 1998 study on intention to change had an unintended outcome; one that has applications to any adult learning experience (1). So what method do you use to get at these? A general question, open ended? Perhaps. Many (most?) people won’t respond to open ended questions–takes too much time. OK. I can live with that. So what do you do instead? What does the literature say could happen? Even if you didn’t design the program for that outcome. Ask that question. Along with the questions about what you expect to happen.

How would you represent this in your logic model–by the ubiquitous “other”? Perhaps. Certainly easy that way. Again, look at program theory. What does it say? Then use what is said there. Or use “other”–then you are getting back to the open ended questions and run the risk of not getting a response. If you only model “other”–do you really know what that “other” is?

I know that I won’t be able to get to world peace, so I look for what I can evaluate and since I doubt I’ll have enough money to actually go and observe behaviors (certainly the ideal), I have to ask a question. In your question asking, you want a response right? Then ask the specific question. Ask it in a way that elicits program influence–how confident the respondent is that X happened? How confident the respondent is that they can do X? How confident is the respondent that this outcome could have happened? You could ask if X happened (yes/no) and then ask the confidence questions (confidence questions are also known as self-efficacy). Bandura will be proud. See Bandure social cognitive theory  OR Bandura social learning theory  OR   Bandura self-efficacy (for discussions of self-efficacy and social learning).

mytwo cents

molly.

1. Mazmanian, P. E., Daffron, S. R., Johnson, R. E., Davis, D. A., Kantrowitz, M. P. (1998). Information about barriers to planned change: A randomized controlled trial involving continuing medical education lectures and commitment to change. Academic Medicine 73(8), 882-886.

In a recent post, I said that 30 was the rule of thumb, i.e., 30 cases was the minimum needed in a group to be able to run inferential statistics and get meaningful results.  How do I know, a colleague asked? (Specifically,  “Would you say more about how it takes approximately 30 cases to get meaningful results, or a good place to find out more about that?”) When I was in graduate school, a classmate (who was into theoretical mathematics) showed me the mathematical formula for this rule of thumb. Of course I don’t remember the formula, only the result. So I went looking for the explanation. I found this site. Although my classmate did go into the details of the chi-square distribution and the formula computations, this article doesn’t do that. It even provides an Excel Demo for calculating sample size and verifying this rule of thumb. I am so relieved that there is another source besides my memory.

 

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Having just read Harold Jarche’s April 27, 2014 blog, making sense of the network era, about personal knowledge mastery (PKM), I am once again reminded about the challenge of evaluation. I am often asked, “Do you have a form I could use about…?” My nutrition and exercise questions notwithstanding (I do have notebooks of those), this makes evaluation sound like it is routine, standardized, or prepackaged rather than individualized, customized, or specific. For me, evaluation is about the exceptions to the rule; how the evaluation this week may have similarities to something I’ve done before (after all this time, I would hope so…), yet is so different; unique, specific.

You can’t expect to find a pre-made formsurvey 2 for your individual program (unless, of course you are replicating a previously established program). Evaluations are unique and the evaluation approach needs to match that unique program specialness. Whether the evaluation uses a survey, a focus group, or an observation (or any other data gathering approach), that approach to gathering data needs to focus on the evaluation question you want answered. You can start with “What difference did the program make?” Only you, the evaluator, can determine if you have enough resources to conduct the evaluation to answer the specific questions that result from what difference did the program make.  You probably do not have enough resources to determine if the program led your target audience to world peace; you might have enough resources to determine if the intention to do something different is there. You probably have enough resources to decide how to use your findings. It is so important that the findings be used; use may be how world peace may be accomplished.

demographics 4There are a few commonalities in data collection; those are the demographics, the data that tell you what your target audience looks like. Things like gender, age, marital status, education level, SES, probably a few other things depending on the program. Make sure when you ask demographic information that a “choose not to answer” option is provided in the survey. Sometimes you have to ask; observations don’t always provide the answer. You need to make sure you include demographics in your survey as most journals want to know what the target audience looked like.

Readers, what makes your evaluations different, unique, special? I’d like to hear about that. Oh and while you are at it…like and share this post, if you do.

 

My friend, Susan, who promised instructions on how to use Excel to select a sample, wrote a post on that very topic. excel and random sampling

She tells me that using screen shots made providing instructions easier so she posted it in a tutorial. Thank you, Susan, for adding this information. Now there is no reason for not selecting a random sample from your large population. Whether the sample will respond or not is out of your control.

Response rates are another thing, to be covered later.

The question of surveys came up the other day. Again.

I got a query from a fellow faculty member and a query from the readership. (No not a comment; just a query–although I now may be able to figure out why the comments don’t work.)

So surveys; a major part of evaluation work. (My go-to book on surveys is Dillman’s 3rd edition 698685_cover.indd; I understand there is a 4th edition coming later this year.9781118456149.pdf )

After getting a copy of Dillman for your desk, This is what I suggest: Start with what you want to know.

This may be in the form of statements or questions. If the result is complicated, see if you can simplify it by breaking it into more than one statement or question. Recently, I  got a “what we want to know” in the form of complicated research questions. I’m not sure that the resulting survey questions answered the research questions because of the complexity. (I’ll have to look at the research questions and the survey questions side by side to see.) Multiple simple statements/questions are easier to match to your survey questions, easier to see if you have survey questions that answer what you want to know. Remember: if you will not use the answer (data), don’t ask the question. Less can actually be more, in this case, and just because it would be interesting to know doesn’t mean the data will answer your “what you want to know” question.

Evaluators strive for evaluation use . (See: Patton, M. Q. (2008). Utilization Focused Evaluation, 4ed. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications, Inc.Utilization-Focused Evaluation; AND/OR Patton, M. Q. (2011). Essentials of Utilization-Focused Evaluation. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications, Inc.Essentials of UFE).  See also the The  Program Evaluation Standards , which lists utility (use) as the first attribute and standard for evaluators. (Yarbrough, D. B., Shulha, L. M., Hopson, R. K., & Caruthers, F. A. (2011). The Program Evaluation Standards: A guide for evaluators and evaluation users (3rd ed.). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications, Inc.The_Program_Evaluation_Standards_3ed)

Evaluation use is related to stated intention to change about which I’ve previously written. If your statements/questions of what you want to know will lead you to using the evaluation findings, then stating the question in such a way as to promote use will foster use, i.e., intention to change. Don’t do the evaluation for the sake of doing an evaluation. If you want to improve the program, evaluate. If you want to know about the program’s value, merit, and worth, evaluate. Then use. One way to make sure that you will follow-through is to frame your initial statements/questions in a way that will facilitate use. Ask simply.

On February 1 at 12:00 pm PT, I will be holding my annual virtual tea party.  This is something I’ve been doing since February of 1993.  I was in Minnesota and the winter was very cold, and although not as bleak as winter in Oregon, I was missing my friends who did not live near me.  I had a tea party for the folks who were local and wanted to think that those who were not local were enjoying the tea party as well.  So I created a virtual tea party.  At that time, the internet was not available; all this was done in hard copy (to this day, I have one or two friends who do not have internet…sigh…).  Today, the internet makes the tea party truly virtual–well the invitation is; you have to have a real cup of tea where ever you are.
Virtual Tea Time 2014

 

How is this evaluative?  Gandhi says that only you can be the change you want to see…this is one way you can make a difference.  How will you know?

I know because my list of invitees has grown exponentially.  And some of them share the invitation.  They pass it on.  I started with a dozen or so friends.  Now my address list is over three pages long.  Including my daughters and daughters of my friends (maybe sons, too for that matter…)

Other ways:  Design an evaluation plan; develop a logic model; create a metric/rubric.  Report the difference.  This might be a good place for using an approach other than a survey or Likert scale.  Think about it.

Did you know that there are at least 11 winter holidays besides Christmas–many of them related to light or the return of light.

One needs evaluation tools to determine the merit or worth, to evaluate the holiday’s value to you.  For me, any that return lightsolstice light are important.  So for me, there is Hanukkah menorah (and eight candles), Solstice solstice bonfire (and bonfires and yule logs), Christmas advent wreath(and Advent wreaths with five candles), Kwanzaa kinara( and kinara seven candles).  Sometimes Diwali Diwali falls late in November to be included (it is the ancient Hindu festival of lights that is a movable feast like Hanukkah).

I have celebrations for Hanukkah  (I have several menorahs), for Solstice  (I have two special candelabra solstice candelabra that holds 12 candles–a mini-bonfire to be sure), for Advent/Christmas (I make a wreath each year), and for Kwanzaa  (a handmade Kinara).  And foods for each celebration as well.  Because I live in a multicultural household, it is important that everyone understand that no holiday is more important than any other–all talk about returning light (literal or figurative).  Sometimes the holidays over lap–Hanukkah, Solstice, Christmas all in the same week…phew, I’m exhausted just thinking about it.  Sometimes it seems hard to keep them separate–then I realized that returning the light is not separate; it is light returning.  It is an evaluative task.

So well come the new born sun/son…the light returns.  Evaluation continues.

Happy Holidays…all of them!

I’m taking two weeks holiday–will see you in the new year.

I was reminded about the age of this blog (see comment below).  Then it occurred to me:  I’ve been writing this blog since December 2009.  That is 4 years of almost weekly posts.  And even though evaluation is my primary focus, I occasionally get on my soap box and do something different (White Christmas Pie, anyone?).  My other passion besides evaluation is food and cooking.  I gave a Latke party on Saturday and the food was pretty–and it even tasted good.  I was more impressed by the visual appeal of my table; my guests were more impressed by the array of tastes, flavors, and textures.  I’d say the evening was a success.  This blog is a metaphor for that table.  Sometimes I’m impressed with the visual appeal; sometimes I’m impressed with the content.  Today is an anniversary.  Four years.  I find that amazing (visual appeal).  The quote below (a comment offered by a reader on the post “Is this blog making a difference?”, a post I made a long time ago) is about content.

“Judging just from the age of your blog I must speculate that you’ve done something right. If not then I doubt you’d still be writing regularly. Evaluation of your progress is important but pales in comparison to the importance of writing fresh new content on a regular basis. Content that can be found no place else is what makes a blog truly useful and indeed helps it make a difference.”

Audit or evaluation?

I’m an evaluator; I want to know what difference the “program” is making in the lives of the participants.  The local school district where I live, work, and send my children to school has provided middle school children with iPads iPad.  They want to “audit” their use.  I commend the school district for that initiative (both giving the iPads as well wanting to determine the effectiveness).  I wonder if they really want to know what difference the electronics are making in the lives of the students.  I guess I need to go re-read Tom Schwandt’s 1988 book, “Linking Auditing and Metaevaluation”, a book he wrote with Ed Halpern, Tom Schwandt book  as well as see what has happened in the last 25 years (and it is NOT that I do not have anything else to read…smiley).  I think it is important to note the sentence (taken from the forward), “Nontraditional studies are found not only in education, but also in…divers fields …(and the list they provide is a who’s who in social science).  The problem of such studies is “establishing their merit”.  That is always a problem with evaluation–establishing the merit, worth, value of a program (study).

We could spend a lot of time debating the  merit, worth, value of using electronics in the pursuit of learning.  (In fact, Jeffrey Selingo writes about the need to personalize instruction using electronics in his 2013 book “College (Un)bound”college unbound by jeffry selingo–very readable, recommended.)   I do not think counting the number of apps or the number of page views is going to answer the question posed.  I do not think counting the number of iPads returned in working condition will either.  This is an interesting experiment.  How , reader, would you evaluate the merit, worth, value of giving iPads to middle school children?  All ideas are welcome–let me know because I do not have an answer, only an idea.

For the first time in my lifetime the first day of Hanukkah is also Thanksgiving.  The pundits are are sagely calling the event Thanksgivukkah.thanksgivukkah image  According to this referenced source, the first day of Hanukkah will not happen again for over 70,000 years.  However, according to another source, this overlap could happen again in 2070 and 2165.  Although I do not think I’ll be around in 2070, my children could be (they are 17 and 20 of this writing).  I find this phenomenon really interesting–Thanksgiving usually starts the US holiday season and Hanukkah falls later, during Advent.  Not so this year.  I wonder how people combine latkes and Thanksgiving (even without the turkey).  Loaded latkes? Thanksgivukkah latkes (My appreciation to Kia.)

So I’m sure you are wondering, HOW EXACTLY DOES THIS RELATE TO EVALUATION?

I decided that it was time to revisit my blog title, Evaluation is an Everyday Activity. Every day you evaluate something.  Although you do not necessarily articulate out loud the criteria against which you are determining merit, worth, and value, you have those criteria.  I have them for latkes AND Thanksgiving.  Our latkes must be crispy; of winter vegetables including potatoes.  This allows me to use a variety of winter vegetables I may have gotten in my CSA.  (Beet latkes? Sweet potato latkes?  Celeriac latkes?  You bet!)   Our Thanksgiving is to have foods for which we are truly thankful.  That allows us to think about gratitude.  Each year our menu is different because each year we are thankful for different things.  (I must confess, however, we always have pie–pumpkin, which I make from home grown pumpkin/squash, and chocolate pecan, which is an original old family recipe.)  One year when we put all the food on the table, all the food was green.  We didn’t plan it that way; it just happened because they were foods for which we were thankful.  This year, we will have mashed potatoes (by the Queen of mashed potatoes), Celebration Filo, both the gluten-free (made with rice wrappers and no onion, garlic, or dairy) and glutened versions (the version which we renamed and is in the link above), and something else that will probably be green.  This year I’m thankful for my gluten-free; dairy-free friend who will join us for Thanksgiving and I’m working up alternatives to accommodate her and still satisfy the rest of us.

So you see, even when I’m thinking about Thanksgiving, latkes, and gratitude, I’m thinking about evaluation.  What merit does the “program” have?  What is its worth?  What is its value?  Those are all evaluative questions that apply to Thanksgiving (and latkes and gratitude). Thanksgiving 2

So you see, Evaluation is an Everyday Activity.

I won’t be blogging next week.  Enjoy.  Be grateful.Thanksgiving

 

 

Variables.

We all know about independent variables, and dependent variables.  Probably even learned about moderator variables, control variables and intervening variables.  Have you heard of confounding variables?  Variables over which you have no (or very little) control.  They present as a positive or negative correlation with the dependent and independent variable.  This spurious relationship plays havoc with analyses, program outcomes, and logic models.  You see them often in social programs.

Ever encounter one? (Let me know).  Need an example?  Here is one a colleague provided.  There was a program developed to assist children removed from their biologic  mothers (even though the courts typically favor mothers) to improve the children’s choices and chances of success.  The program had included training of key stakeholders (including judges, social service, potential foster parents).  The confounding variable that wasn’t taken into account was the sudden appearance of the biological father.  Judges assumed that he was no longer present (and most of the time he wasn’t); social service established fostering without taking into consideration the presence of the biological father; potential foster parents were not allerted in their training of the possibility.  Needless to say, the program failed.  When biologic fathers appeared (as often happened), the program had no control over the effect they had.  Fathers had not been included in the program’s equation.

Reviews.

Recently, I was asked to review a grant proposal, the award would result in several hundred thousand dollars (and in today’s economy, no small change).  The PI’s passion came through in the proposal’s text.  However, the PI and the PI’s colleagues did some major lumping in the text that confounded the proposed outcomes.  I didn’t see how what was being proposed would result in what was said to happen.  This is an evaluative task.  I was charged to with evaluating the proposal on technical merit, possibility of impact (certainly not world peace), and achievability.  The proposal was lofty and meant well.  The likelihood that it would accomplish what it proposed was unclear, despite the PI’s passion.  When reviewing a proposal, it is important to think big picture as well as small picture.  Most proposals will not be sustainable after the end of funding.  Will the proposed project be able to really make an impact (and I’m not talking here about world peace).

Conversations.

I attended a meeting recently that focused on various aspects of diversity.  (Now among the confounding here is what does one mean by diversity; is it only the intersection of gender and race/ethnicity?  Or something bigger, more?)  One of the presenters talked about how just by entering into the conversation, the participants would be changed.  I wondered, how can that change be measured?  How would you know that a change took place?  Any ideas?  Let me know.

Focus groups.

A colleague asked whether a focus group could be conducted via email.  I had never heard of such a thing (virtual, yes; email, no).  Dick Krueger and Mary Ann Casey only talk about electronic reporting in their 4th edition of their Focus Group book. krueger 4th ed  If I go to Wikipedia (keep in mind it is a wiki…), there is a discussion of online focus groups.  Nothing offered about email focus groups.  So I ask you, readers, is it a focus group if it is conducted by email?