January 6, 2020/David P. Turner
Earth system scientists commonly refer to feedbacks in the climate system.
A feedback loop within a system means that a change in one part or component of the system induces a change in another component that either amplifies (positive feedback) or dampens (negative feedback) the initial change.
The classic positive feedback related to global climate change and the Earth system is that warming of the global climate caused by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere results in reduction in snow cover and sea ice, which causes less reflectance of solar radiation, and hence more absorption of solar radiation by Earth’s surface, and more warming. A potential negative feedback is if warming increases evaporation, which causes more clouds, which reflect more solar radiation, and hence cool the climate. Most of the feedbacks in the climate system are positive.
By burning fossil fuels and pushing up the atmospheric CO2 concentration, humanity is unintentionally warming the global climate and inducing multiple climate system feedbacks.
A big question is whether humanity can collectively begin to purposefully impact the Earth system in the form of a negative feedback to climate change, i.e. begin to slow down the rise in greenhouse gas concentrations and even begin to draw down those concentrations. This willful action would be a teleological feedback to our unintended warming of the Earth system by way of greenhouse gas emissions.
A disturbing paradox about current climate change is that by increasing the atmospheric CO2 concentration, humanity has shown that we are the equivalent of a geological force. But humanity thus far is not organized enough to purposefully shape the Earth system.
What we don’t have is much political will to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, nor the right international institutions to manage a global scale response.
Political will comes from lots of sources, but maybe the most likely source is that as more and more people experience extreme weather events, sea level rise, and the other impacts of climate change, they will support mitigation efforts (e.g. a carbon tax). Australia in 2020 appears to be a test case for this proposition.
Also, we might hope for political leaders who understand the situation and are committed to doing something about it.
Regarding global environmental governance, the size and strength of relevant international institutions are incommensurate with the challenge of global environmental change. At the very least, a stronger United Nations Environmental Program or a new U.N. World Environmental Organization is needed.
Lenton, T. 2016. Earth System Science: A very short introduction. Oxford University Press.
Joni Mitchell, They Paved Paradise