BCI EDGE · Aim 3

The seed-to-seedling crucible

Measuring evolutionary filtering during the earliest life stages, when more than 90 percent of individuals die and selection may be strongest.

The question

Why do some seeds and seedlings survive while most do not?

The transition from seed to established seedling is shaped by pathogens, herbivores, competition, environmental variation and genetic quality. Aim 3 tests how these forces interact to determine survival.

The approach

Experimental selection in the forest

Field cohorts and experiments will connect genotype, phenotype and local ecological conditions from dispersal through establishment.

  • Tracked seed and seedling cohorts
  • Natural-enemy exclusion and neighborhood experiments
  • Resistance and defense loci
  • Genetic quality and inbreeding load
  • Chemical and genomic mechanisms of survival

Why it matters

The stage where diversity is filtered

By identifying which individuals survive and why, Aim 3 will connect fine-scale ecological interactions with evolutionary change across generations.