The football that you’re seeing this year has been several years in the making. Nearly all major performance metrics have been trending downward for years. I’ve been reporting on these for some time now with the declines in scoring defense and scoring offense among the most troubling.

Recruiting matters. There are consequences for not recruiting well. OSU’s recruiting has been on a multiyear downward slide in relation to conference peers. It’s not just about us. Our competitors are raising expectations and part of that is improved recruiting. There are now fewer programs ranked below OSU in the conference each year and more above OSU. The graphic below clearly shows the trend (regression trend is dashed line) with regard to OSU’s Rival’s ranking of recruiting within the conference.

There’s a reason why this team has seemed smaller, slower, and overall less talented than teams in the past – it is. The 2015 OSU team is drawn from weak recruiting classes and has the lowest average national ranking at 52 of any OSU team since Rivals started their database records in 2002. The Pac-12 average is 35. This is not the fault of the players – they are doing their best given the circumstances of learning a new system of offense and defense all while limited in their innate abilities. Compounding the slide in talent is that some of the team’s most talented players have been injured. Few good things happen when you’re playing backups at multiple critical positions like QB, cornerback, etc.

Coaching matters. Brand new coaching staffs need time to adapt to their environment and their players. New coaches will make mistakes not unlike inexperienced players. OSU’s only winning seasons of the past 5 years, 2012 and 2013, were marked by an unusual number of new coaches heading up programs on the schedule. The Beavers were 6-1 against new coaches over those two years, but were only 9-9 against established coaches. OSU was also 1-0 against an interim coach in the bowl game with Boise State, essentially a new head coach.

This is the start of a multiyear rebuild of the program as I indicated at the start of the season. The rebuild will not be quick because the talent level is low. Few Beaver fans recognized these trends several years ago when critical decisions could have been made to stem the tide. Even fewer fans would have supported those changes. So this rebuild could not have been avoided.

We (coaches, players, and fans) will all suffer in the short term. But I know that we will all be better because of it in the long run.