With a win on Friday night, Stanford has a chance to make its third consecutive BCS bowl appearance – Orange, Fiesta, and now the Rose Bowl.

How did the Cardinal abruptly change their fortunes and in such a short time frame?

In the decade prior to OSU’s breakout year in 1999, Stanford had a very pedestrian win-loss record at 55-58 while OSU was suffering through the last decade of its 28-year nightmare with an abysmal record of 28-83.  During this decade, the Cardinal had a 7-3 record against OSU.

But in the decade beginning with OSU’s first winning season in 1999, the Beavers record improved dramatically to 79-45 while Stanford’s record dropped to 47-68.  OSU owned a 6-3 advantage over Stanford in this decade.  Several weak coaching candidates took the helm at Stanford leading to poor results for the program.

Enter Jim Harbaugh.  Harbaugh took over the program in 2007 and worked to reverse the culture on the Farm that had led to the moribund results.  Success was not immediate but the improvement in team play was a marked departure from prior coaching staffs.   Starting in 2008 through last week’s contest, Stanford has a sterling 41-10 record while OSU has slipped to an even 24-24 in that same period.  Moreover, our record against Stanford, a team that in the recent past OSU was beating with regularity had likewise dropped t0 1-3.

So what was the secret to Stanford’s success?  A new stadium that opened in 2006 was certainly a help to Coach Harbaugh when he started his stint in 2007.  But the real reason why there’s been a reversal of OSU’s and Stanford’s fortunes is in recruiting.

An examination of OSU’s recruiting classes reveals that the Beaver’s ranking of recruiting classes as measured against conference foes has declined somewhat over the last decade (Figure 1).  Furthermore, there has been little growth in the average star rating of the recruiting classes in this same period.  OSU was not able to get a significant uptick in recruiting despite two major stadium projects that were completed in 2005 and 2007.

Figure 1. Conference rankings and average star rating for OSU football recruiting classes (source Rivals.com)

On the other hand, Stanford’s recruiting class rankings within the conference and average star ratings have soared since the arrival of Harbaugh in 2007 (Figure 2).  Prior to that time, OSU’s average star ratings were not different from Stanford’s and the class rankings were often poorer than those attained by OSU.  And with Harbaugh’s departure, the winning has continued under Coach Shaw in large part because the talent influx has persisted.

Figure 2. Conference rankings and average star rating for Stanford football recruiting classes (source Rivals.com)

OSU’s success on the field has not led to improved recruiting in relation to our competitors while Stanford’s improved recruiting has led to success on the field and consecutive BCS appearances.  One factor that helps Stanford is that they have the 3rd highest recruiting budget in the Pac-12  in each of the past two fiscal years while OSU has had the 11th and 10th ranked recruiting budgets.  Despite Stanford’s agreeable climate, an academic reputation that sells itself, excellent facilities, and close proximity to airports and other means of transportation, the Cardinal program is still willing to spend money on marketing its program to potential student-athletes.

OSU having none of these built-in advantages continues to underspend the conference average on recruiting.  These differences are not huge sums of money – about a quarter of a million dollars would allow us to match Stanford’s spending on recruiting and give our program a fighting chance.