An effective running game is an essential component of a balanced pro-style offense.   At OSU, this type of offense has been used with success since the return of Mike Riley to the campus in 2003.

Over the last 120 games through Saturday’s loss at the University of Washington, OSU has used 49.3% running plays and 50.7% passing plays giving the team essentially an equal number of passing and running plays in the offense.

Rushing plays as a percentage of total plays since 2003 and net yards gained rushing per attempt. Click to enlarge.

So what is the balance between running plays and passing plays that give the best results for OSU’s offense?  An analysis of the complete set of games since 2003 reveals that OSU has a winning percentage of 0.772 (61-18) when rushing plays account for 45% or more of the total offensive plays.  In other words, OSU wins more than 77% of the time when 45% or more of the plays are running plays and 55% or less of the plays are passing.  By contrast, when OSU runs the football in 44% or less of the total offensive plays, the winning percentage drops to 0.219.

(Note that in sports, winning percentage is not expressed as a percentage and is actually a fractional number.  You’ll need to multiply the winning percentage by 100 to obtain the percentage of games won by a team)

When the team rushes for 3.0 yards per attempt or more, the winning percentage for OSU is 0.712 while the winning percentage drops to 0.383 with 2.9 yards per attempt or less.  From 2003 until last Saturday, the overall average for yardage gained per rushing attempt is 3.5 and the team has an overall winning percentage of 0.583 in that period.

As an aside, the net yards rushing per attempt does include losses from QB sacks.  Some would argue that these losses should not be included since they are not in their opinion, a true measure of the rushing game despite the fact that the stat is included in the box scores by game statisticians.  If you eliminate QB rushes or just the sacks from the total, you’re not getting a true picture of how the rushing game attains field position in the contest.  And you’ll eliminate QB rushing yards gained in sneaks and draws, and yards lost in kneeling down in victory formation for passing QBs from the picture.  With so many running QBs in today’s college football game, if QBs and their losses in sacks are eliminated from the stats, how can valid comparisons between pro-style and spread option offenses be made?

The one-back spread offense employed by former coach Dennis Erickson at OSU also showed balance between passing and running.  Running plays accounted for 53.8% of the total over his 4-year tenure and the 11-1 Fiesta Bowl team in 2000 ran the football 61% of the time.  The wishbone-based offense during the Jerry Pettibone era rarely passed and like the pass-first offense of Dave Kragthorpe, these unbalanced offenses could move the ball between the 20s but could not score many points and hence, won few games.  The percentage of running plays at OSU has steadily declined from a Riley-era peak of 55% in 2007 to 39% in 2011 despite having stellar runners such as the Rodgers brothers in that time frame.  To date in 2012, the percentage of running plays has increased to 46% for the season and the team is now 6-1 despite little improvement in the rushing yards gained per attempt (3.3 yards per attempt).

In the loss at the UW, running plays accounted for only 34% of the total offensive plays.  When OSU runs the ball 34% or less of the time in a game, the winning percentage is a paltry 0.091.  But the average yards gained per rushing attempt was 4.7 in the loss.  OSU’s winning percentage in games with 4.0 or more yards per attempt is 0.844.

Critics will argue that if a team is winning a game especially with a pro-style offense, the tendency is to run more and to pass less, thereby giving larger run percentages in winning efforts.  Certainly, if the game is out of hand early and the team is behind by a large score, one can understand the tendency to abandon the balanced game plan and pass more, but if the score is close, the data suggest that the chances of victory are improved if the balance is maintained between pass and run even if behind.

OSU’s version of the popular bumper sticker should read – “Run more, pass less”.

Table 1. Rushing plays as a percentage of total offensive plays and win-loss records at OSU since 2003.

Table 2.  Net yards gained per rushing attempt and win-loss records at OSU since 2003.