The American Dream of upward mobility is disappearing for many, but not all. In the 1940s, about 90% of children grew up to earn more than their parents; today only about half earn more than their parents. Economist Raj Chetty and his colleagues recently released a study and remarkable web-based tool revealing that, when it comes to upward mobility, place matters. Chetty and his colleagues used data from tax and census records to track data for more than 20 million Americans back to the neighborhoods where they grew up. In high-density urban areas, using the on-line tool, researchers have found that only a few blocks can make all the difference to educational attainment and future earnings (see https://opportunityinsights.org/press/).
You can also see the differences at the county level, and it’s there that we can see clear evidence of the Daly Fund impact. The on-line tool is especially helpful as it shows the impact on those who moved away from Lake County, not just those who continue to live in the county. Yes, Lake County children grow up to have higher incomes, higher college graduation rates and lower teen birth rates than those in neighboring Harney County but even more interesting is the comparison with Benton County, home of Oregon State University and Oregon’s most highly educated county. You’d think that the youth in Benton County would have tremendous advantage – doesn’t even seem like a fair comparison when Benton County’s median household income is $52,000 and it’s only $33,000 in Lake County. But, when you look at all youth who grew up in Benton and Lake counties, including those who moved away, their household income is much closer, $49,000 in Benton and $47,000 in Lake. And, when you look at only those who grew up in middle-income families, household income for youth who grew up in Lake County is more than for youth who grew up in Benton County — $48,000 in Lake, $44,000 in Benton. The college graduation rate for those youth is virtually the same – 38% in Lake and 39% in Benton. The Daly Fund has kept the American Dream alive, making it possible for Lake County youth to have a chance for economic success no matter their background.
The results of our web-based survey of Daly Fund recipients also shows that the American Dream is alive and well for Lake County youth. Almost all of the survey respondents (82%) reported that the Daly Fund had some or great impact on their economic circumstances. When asked about their most recent annual household income, about half (49.6%) reported annual incomes greater than $100,000 and a quarter (24.8%) reported annual incomes greater than $150,000, almost five times greater than the median annual household income in Lake County of $33,000. The high annual household incomes reported by the Daly Scholarship recipients is largely due to their high levels of education (over 90% have bachelor’s degrees and more than 40% have graduate degrees) rather than any inherited family wealth. When asked how their income compares to that of their parents, about three-quarters (77.5%) reported that their family income was either somewhat or much more than their parents when they were growing up.
P.S. Many thanks to Sue Ogle Densmore (Lakeview H.S., 1967) for pointing me to the Opportunity Atlas.
