Current working papers and forthcoming/recent articles:

  1. *Johnson, K., and D.J. Lewis. 2022. Climate uncertainty slows adaptation: An empirical analysis of option values in forestry. Working Paper. (PDF version).
  2. *Mihiar, C., and D.J. Lewis. 2022. An empirical analysis of U.S. land-use change under multiple climate change scenarios. Working Paper. (PDF version).
  3. *Zhao, Z., Langpap, C., and D.J. Lewis. 2022. Examining the effectiveness of non-profit groups’ expenditures on species recovery: The case of Pacific salmon and steelhead. Working Paper. (PDF version).
  4. *Wang, Y., and D.J. Lewis. 2022. Wildfire and climate change have lowered the economic value of western US forests by altering risk expectations. Working Paper. (PDF version)
  5. *Johnson, K., and D.J. Lewis. 2022. Estimating the economic benefits of conservation policies for threatened species: A case study of riparian buffer rules and salmon. Working Paper.
  6. *Zhao, Z., and D.J. Lewis. 2022. Conversions of natural forests to plantations induced by wood pellet expansion. Work in progress.
  7. Lew, D.K., Lewis, D.J., Kling, D.M., and S.J. Dundas. 2022. Caution ahead – Do respondents ignore future payments in stated preference questions? Working Paper.
  8. *Magel, C.L., Scheuerell, M.C., Buhle, E.R., Lewis, D.J., Weeber, M., and S.D. Hacker. 2022. Estuary and upland habitats are equally important for the production of threatened Oregon Coast coho salmon populations. Working Paper.
Note: * above signifies a paper written with a graduate student as part of their research.

Current project: The economics of climate adaptation in forestry

How can forest landowners adapt their management to climate change, and what are the resulting impacts of this adaptation on the provision of forest ecosystem services and the economic value of forests? How can conservation agencies design policy to efficiently provide ecosystem services from forests when the climate is changing?

This project examines these research questions by focusing on the development of empirical evidence using micro-econometric tools, microeconomic theory, spatial simulation, and integrated economic-ecological analysis.

Highlighted finding: West coast forest landowners will plant less Douglas-fir in warming climate

Highlighted finding: Climate change will lower the economic value of timberland in the Pacific states by 39%, with most losses coming from Douglas-fir forests

Projected Percentage Change in Value of Douglas-fir (left) and Hardwoods (right) by 2050 on Plots Currently Growing Douglas-fir.

Highlighted finding: Warmer temperatures by 2050 will increase forest net returns on the middle latitudes of eastern U.S. timberland by increasing incentives to plant more pine

Current project: The economics of threatened species and natural capital

What are the non-market benefits associated with investing in natural capital that increases the abundance of threatened species? How do habitat investments influence the abundance of threatened species, and what is the economic value of such habitat investments? 

This project examines these research questions by developing empirical evidence from choice experiment surveys and integrated ecological production functions on an in-depth case study of Oregon Coast Coho salmon.

Highlighted finding: Helping threatened coho salmon could generate hundreds of millions in non-market economic benefits

Highlighted finding: Conservation activities that achieve immediate abundance gains for a threatened species (or prevent immediate losses) produce significantly higher benefits than activities that gradually achieve the same abundance gains

This figure is from Lewis et al. (2022) in JEEM: Comparing the value of time paths of abundance gains for a threatened species. (A) Time paths of population increase. (B) Population-level present value of WTP for time paths shown in Panel A, shown in terms of PVWTP for population gain realized through each year. (C) Household-level PVWTP for the quick time path (Panel A). (D) Contribution to overall household PVWTP from each time path pre- and post-year 50.

Current project: The intersection between urbanization, climate change, and markets for forest and farmland

This project features a nationwide study of the relationship between urbanization, climate change, and the markets for farmland and timberland. We focus on developing empirical analyses of how future development potential, climate change, and fire risks are capitalized into forest and farmland values, along with empirical assessment of the drivers of the remarkable downturn in the rate of urban land growth over the past two decades.

Highlighted finding: Decreasing development on forest and agricultural land partly driven by gas prices

The last two decades of the 20th century were characterized by rising land development, a trend that reversed course during the start of the 21st century (A); development outpaced population growth until the end of the 20th century, when population began to grow at a relatively faster pace (B); in relative terms, these trends imply that development has become inelastic with respect to population growth (C); these trends are also consistent with those of two main drivers of development, namely income and commuting costs (as measured by gasoline prices) (D).
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