The Carlton Dance

“You may watch TV, but in Soviet Russia, TV watches you!” – Comedian Yakov Smirnoff

With the recent concerns about a possible conflict in Ukraine, I have been reminded of a Bellingcat report which was issued in 2014.  For those who are not familiar with Bellingcat, it is a group which specializes in open-source investigations, typically based on information which is available in the public domain.  By combining diverse investigative specializations with modern computing methods, they have been able to produce some impressive and often conclusive answers to challenging questions.  Even if you are not researching a specific topic, it may be interesting to read through some of their reports on current events.

https://www.bellingcat.com

The report in 2014 entitled “Origin of Artillery Attacks on Ukrainian Military Positions in Eastern Ukraine between 14 July 2014 and 8 August 2014” was a revelation for me in multiple regards.  For one, this was the first conclusive evidence that I had seen which demonstrated that the Russian military had directly attacked the Ukrainian military in order to prevent assertion of government control over the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine.  For another, this was the watershed which made me realize exactly how transparent the world had become and that the challenge had evolved from “how to get information” to “how to cope with the amount of information that is available, and piece it together into mosaics that make sense.”

Background

In early 2014, President Yanukovych was forced to flee Ukraine after failing to suppress large scale protests in Kyiv and throughout the country.  The protests had erupted largely in response to persistent corruption, but President Yanukovych’s close relationship with Russian leadership, added a geopolitical aspect to an already challenging situation.  Russia responded by invading and annexing Crimea, after which skirmishes also broke out in the Donbas region, near the Russian border.

The Ukrainian government initiated an operation to reestablish control in the region, which was largely successful until it met precision rocket attacks beginning in July 2014.  Given the relatively disorganized and ineffective resistance that separatist fighters had demonstrated prior to this point, many analysts speculated that the attacks had been carried out by Russian forces, which the Kremlin denied.  Ultimately these attacks prevented the Ukrainian government from completing its operations in eastern Ukraine and the Donbas region now remains in a murky condition without effective rule of law or universal international recognition.

The Bellingcat Investigation

To establish attribution for the attack, the Bellingcat team began by examining satellite images of the impact craters from Google Earth.  Even now, seven years later, the locations at which rockets landed can be identified on Google Earth as areas of discoloration in the field at which Ukrainian forces came under attack.  In satellite images taken July 16, 2014 (two days after the attack), the shapes of craters were clear enough to reveal the direction from which projectiles had landed.

(The above image is taken from the Bellingcat report, page 5)

(The above image was taken from Google Earth on February 10, 2022)

Armed with this information, the Bellingcat team began looking for possible launch positions along the line of approach and discovered a likely candidate 14.6km away from the impact zone, near the Russian village of Seleznev.  The area was directly on the projectile path that crater analysis had indicated and within range of all multiple launch rocket systems (MLRSs) commonly used by Russian or Ukrainian armed forces.  Moreover, the images showed tracks of the MLRSs and scorch marks in the July 16 satellite images, neither of which was present in previous satellite images, thus suggesting that rockets had been launched from this location shortly prior.

(The above images was taken from the Bellingcat report, page 7)

Moreover, the team was able to glean some interesting information from the tracks themselves.  For one, they established the direction from which MLRSs had arrived and to which they returned, thus demonstrating that these units had come from within Russia rather than originating in Ukraine as some analysts had postulated.  Through process of elimination, the Bellingcat team was also able to determine that the launch platforms used were BM 21s because all other platforms operated by Russian or Ukrainian forces would have wider tracks and/or multiple steerable axles.

Next, the Bellingcat team turned its attention to several videos showing Russian MLRSs in use, which were posted on YouTube and VKontakte.  Although the specific locations were not specified, each video contained visual queues (such as buildings, towers and distinctive natural features) which allowed the Bellingcat team to triangulate the location from which each video had been filmed, and thus to determine the location of the launch platforms shown.

The Bellingcat team applied such techniques to other rocket attacks against the Ukrainian military between July 14 and August 4 with similar results.  One final touch was that some of the videos captured the angle of inclination at which rockets were being launched.  The BM 21 Grad uses self-propelled projectiles with no ability to regulate their velocity, hence operators must adjust the angle of launch inclination in order to achieve the desired range.  Comparing the inclination shown in video with published firing tables for these systems revealed that the expected range to impact corresponded with the distance to Ukrainian positions which appear to have been targeted.

In Reflection

At the time, I was very surprised that Bellingcat had been able to so conclusively establish that attacks against the Ukrainian military had been carried out by the Russian military. Bellingcat is one of the more prolific open-source investigative groups, but they are by no means alone.  Since the 2014 paper establishing attribution for rocket attacks on the Ukrainian military, I have seen many other well-documented analyses based predominantly on mosaics of publicly available information.

The impact of the events described above were clear for the Ukrainian military.  The attacks killed dozens of service members and injured hundreds more, operations to restore control in Donbas failed and the murky condition of the Donbas region persists 7 years later.  However, there is a broader impact which is considerable and difficult to fully quantify.  Massive amounts of digital information are now available and publicly accessible, thanks to the internet.  The effectiveness of open-source investigations such as this demonstrate the level of visibility that is available to even independent sleuths who have the ability to identify relevant information and make connections which are informative.  Particularly with the proliferation and democratization of AI-based tools, we are all going to have to come to terms with a new reality in which the world is very transparent.

The full Bellingcat report may be found here…

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwieyd2SlPf1AhX5CTQIHfyIChsQFnoECAIQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bellingcat.com%2Fapp%2Fuploads%2F2016%2F02%2Fbellingcat_-_origin_of_artillery_attacks_02-12-15_final1.pdf&usg=AOvVaw1Iwi4LUMwiHp0-oY-HGkBW