Category Archives: Risk

The Short Rules of Entrepreneurship

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Today I offer you my personal rules for entrepreneurship. This set is by no means complete, but they are hopefully food for thought.

Rule 1: Entrepreneurship is about action – The Captain’s chair is yours.

Rule 2: Some people dream about doing great things. Keep your eyes wide open and your feet on the ground, and then do great things.

Rule 3: A sports metaphor for Rule 2. There is no crying in baseball. There is no sleeping in entrepreneurship.

Rule 4: Focus on customers and building a business that is client centered rather than focused on technology. Make sure your company solves customer pain or creates great results for your customer.

Rule 5: Entrepreneurship is not fair. Neither is angel or venture capital funding.

Rule 6: Treat your 3F (Friends, Family and others (known as Fools) round as if they are professional investors. All 3F angel investors have an investment committee – their spouse. Respect the relationship.

Rule 7: Angel and venture capital is like a series of locked doors. Someone must unlock the door for you. Find the people with keys.

Rule 8: Build your company by building a customer base. Build for one client at a time. Later, build for multiple clients.

Rule 9: You have exactly one minute to make your pitch. Practice making them.

Rule 10: Learn the language of entrepreneurship and tell the truth. (Do not tell the typical lies: “Our market cap will scale up to $27.1 billion in five years” or “our competition is too big and slow to move as fast as us,” unless you are Elon Musk and build spaceships in your spare time.)

Rule 11: Get a champion who will work with you.

Rule 12: Bootstrap. Frugality is a virtue. Put some skin in the game.

Rule 13: You are only as good as your cash.

Rule 14: So what? Why you? What have you accomplished so far?

Rule 15: Build a team. One person cannot do everything.

Rule 16: Be a good listener and a better filter.

Rule 17: Network!

Rule 18: If you build it they will not come. You must sell to them.

Rule 19: Never BS yourself or your team. Always pause to understand the bias in all decision making.

Rule 20: This rulebook is incomplete.

Do you have additional tips for entrepreneurs? Feel free to add to the list.

Managing Risk and Managing Decisions

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Early in my career I worked in investment banking and international banking. So, later on when I taught finance I reflected on the issue of risk, and the basic elements of financial risk that all business ventures should consider:

  • Understanding the types of risk;
  • The fundamentals of risk; and
  • Managing the risk.

The fundamentals of risk management involve:

  1. Identifying the risks
  2. Measuring the potential impact
  3. Deciding how each risk should be handled.

In a recent Harvard Business Review article on business model innovation, I noticed a commentary on marketing. This particular article contained a major section about when to make key decisions and identifying who should make those decisions. It occurred to me that the elements of risk are almost identical to the innovation model. Both focus on reducing risk in a venture.

In a past blog I discussed the garbage can model of decision-making, and focused on being novel in decisions. Today, I am looking at reducing the risk and uncertainty inherent in any startup.

Risk identification is a process that systematically and continuously identifies current and potential risks that might have an adverse affect on a startup. The impact of the risk is affected by both frequency (lots of events) and severity (potential big losses). Most companies don’t worry much about frequent small losses. Office supplies disappearing or the local candy store missing a few small low cost items are two examples of a small loss. However, with severe losses, many organizations take precautions to protect events from occurring. Examples here might include large ticket items missing in the isles of retailers or a few items being chained down so that only department managers can help you try on the expensive goods.

In decision-making, the risk inherent about when key decisions should be made is often due to the lack of sufficient information to reduce the uncertainty. Strategies to deal with this issue may include:

  1. Postponing the decision. Sometimes decisions appear urgent but are not.
  2. Splitting up the decision into a series of real options. Break the decision into small bite size pieces this reducing any significant investment.
  3. Changing the order of decisions. Sometimes a client may ask for customization that may not benefit the strategic direction or value of the organization. In response, the startup can change the sequence to only payment upfront or with proof of performance before investing in the customization.

The CEO may not always initiate all important decision-making. Empowering employees is a very effective way to deal with every day minor decisions. If the decision is too important to delegate, then another way to manage the risk is to consult with a board member or trusted advisor. Even then, always try to find the HIPPO (the industry’s Highest Paid Person’s Opinion). Delegating up or outsourcing may be the best option when dealing with risk issues.

Managing risk and decisions can also be accomplished through insurance, or outsourcing. Startups often hire distributors and/or transportation companies to take on the logistics of moving product not only because it is less expensive but also because these outsource companies have the know-how to manage these specific operational risk.

In startups there are other types of identifiable risk that may include market risk, supplier risk, default risk by clients and others that are usually addressed in the planning process. Managing risk and managing decisions travel in lock step with similar processes. However you manage risk, make sure the process is around a strategic framework and one that allows for continuous monitoring.

Decision Making with Data and Measurement

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As many of you know, the mantra for the Business Model Canvas is to get out of the office and interview customers, partners, channels and others. In fact, talking to experts and potential customers is the only true way to reduce uncertainty and to study the value of a product or service. In fact, I believe that it is the basis for all relevant qualitative research in entrepreneurship. As I work actively with the Business Model Canvas, I am convinced that getting out of the office and into the world is only the first small step in the entrepreneurial journey.

Real world data collection and analysis is a key component to reduce the uncertainty of a startup. The starting point is to understand how much is currently known about the problem and what is it worth. What decision will this measurement help us make? Is this an important enough decision to collect more data? Otherwise, what is the value in measuring? Will sufficient additional information be gained from the measurement exercise? If not, why then why bother to measure? What additional value will the measurement add to help with the decision? All of these are crucial considerations. The starting point should not be an identifying what is to be measured, but a reflection of why the measurement is necessary.

The next issue in data collection is to decide what creates a good metric to measure. First, a good metric must be (1) understandable and comparative (shown as a rate or ratio), (2) important to collect and (3) lead to an action directly related to the original required decision. Thus, the results of the data collection should relatively easy to collect, consistent, usable, and can capture information that is relevant to the company.

There are a few simple rules to help an entrepreneur get stated with data. The first set of data is usually exploratory for a startup. Exploratory research means it is okay to through darts. Use the shotgun, throw spaghetti against the wall, see what sticks. At this stage, exploratory data may not have specific decisions for collecting data other than the process of elimination.

The next rule regards checking the data collected and making sure that the right questions were asked. Was the variance of the sample population diffuse enough to provide a good sampling? Did outliers have any effect on the results? Were any assumptions made or any context involved that might invalidate the test?

Another question to ask about collected data is whether it constitutes a leading or lagging indicator? Leading indicators are indicative of future events; lagging indicators follow the event and advise what happened. Also, consider whether the data represents a correlation or causal relationship? A correlation does not mean that one variable or change in variable causes the other. A correlation only indicates that a relationship may exist or not. There just may be some type of association. On the other hand a causal relationship or  “cause and effect” means that is, a relationship between two things or events exists if one occurs because of the other.

Measurement tools and data analytics will not bring perfect decisions, but good and appropriate measurement may reduce uncertainty with significant decisions. While hypothesis testing is important in building an effective canvas, it is also important to use suitable and valid measurement tools ( the specifics of these tools will be another blog post).

Here are a few good resources to assist in the development of data skills:

How to Measure Anything Douglas Hubbard focuses on measuring intangibles—the value of patents, copyrights and trademarks; management effectiveness, quality, and public image.

Lean Analytics Alistair Croll and Benjamin Yoskovitz takes a good look into the quantitative side of measurement specifically directed to entrepreneurs.

How to Start Think Like a Data Scientist Thomas Redmond writes a brief NBR article on getting started.

An Introduction to Data-Driven Decisions for Managers Who Don’t Like Math Walter Frick on why data matters.

Entrepreneurs Are Not Risk Takers

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This is the first of a two part section on entrepreneurial risk.

Risk is not the same as calculated risk:

I often tease my Economics friends that their theories only hold “ceteris paribus”—“all else held equal.” What relevance is this for entrepreneurs? Entrepreneurial activity does not operate in a vacuum. Everything is always in motion. Entrepreneurs have more balls in the air than a circus juggler. In fact, startups can never operate “ceteris paribus.”

As a teacher of entrepreneurship, I always told my students that the market is always your guide. Don’t overly focus on one concept with your eyes in a blinder. Your journey is not a sprint but rather a marathon. Before starting on the entrepreneurial marathon, learn the rules of the game. Know your industry well so that you can play better. Understand the strategies, business models and nuances. Focus on uncertainty reduction. Reduce the risks of a mistake. Most successful entrepreneurs use many sources and concepts to reduce the risk factor.

Startup behavior is really not about taking risks, but systematically thinking about potential losses and pitfalls thus, reducing risk and uncertainty. Startup activity is a calculated risk that includes all possible factors, not excluding variables. The successful entrepreneur decreases uncertainty through a number of ways. The entrepreneur should think then know how much is required to stay alive until becoming cash flow positive. Perseverance is a genuine entrepreneurial trait, but at some time the founder must realize when it is time to stop. Saras Saravathy calls this concept “affordable loss.” Spend only what you can afford to lose. The same concept holds true in negotiation: Your BATNA (Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement) is to the negotiation what affordable loss is to entrepreneurs.

There are many ways to reduce risk in a startup.

The first is to get a good mentor. Get two or three mentors. A Mentor is a person whose hindsight becomes your foresight. Use their wisdom.

Get out the door and go network, meet people. Meet the HIPPOs—the Highest Industry’s Paid Persons Opinion. These are the smartest guys and gals in the room. Sometimes money can’t buy these opinions, but if entrepreneurs can offer something really interesting and exciting – like a cutting edge product. A HIPPO may be hungry for this new knowledge and be interested in helping your project. After all, HIPPOs need that information to stay on top of the food chain. Industry knowledge is a key success factor. If your research can offer something to the HIPPO that they did not already know, then you may have your foot in the door to success.

There are other basic risks that must be addressed. Is the targeted market big enough to support your growth business? Can you find and retain the appropriate talent. Is your intellectual property sufficiently protected? Can your team execute and deliver? Can you manage your accumulated financial losses until you are cash flow positive? Do you know all the premises behind your financials, cash position and cash flow to survive the turbulent start? Do you understand where every dollar of your funds goes and how that spending action adds value?

Understanding the underlying processes, and flow of you’re your company before embarking on the entrepreneurial journey will pay off when you are ready to launch. Knowing these key characteristics is all about reducing the risks of a startup.

More in the next post.