{"id":900,"date":"2023-09-15T20:11:25","date_gmt":"2023-09-15T20:11:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/technosphere\/?p=900"},"modified":"2023-09-15T20:17:12","modified_gmt":"2023-09-15T20:17:12","slug":"carbon-cycle-consequences-of-vegetation-climate-mismatch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/technosphere\/2023\/09\/15\/carbon-cycle-consequences-of-vegetation-climate-mismatch\/","title":{"rendered":"Carbon Cycle Consequences of Vegetation\/Climate Mismatch"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\">David P. Turner \/ September 15, 2023<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"681\" src=\"https:\/\/osu-wams-blogs-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com\/blogs.dir\/3635\/files\/2023\/09\/image.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-901\" srcset=\"https:\/\/osu-wams-blogs-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com\/blogs.dir\/3635\/files\/2023\/09\/image.png 1024w, https:\/\/osu-wams-blogs-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com\/blogs.dir\/3635\/files\/2023\/09\/image-300x200.png 300w, https:\/\/osu-wams-blogs-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com\/blogs.dir\/3635\/files\/2023\/09\/image-768x511.png 768w, https:\/\/osu-wams-blogs-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com\/blogs.dir\/3635\/files\/2023\/09\/image-451x300.png 451w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Planting a tree should include a species selection process that factors in projected climate change over the lifetime of the tree.\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.flickr.com\/photos\/usfsregion5\/3598029211\">Image Credit<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Equilibrium between vegetation and climate refers to the state in which the species and ecosystem type best adapted to a particular area actually occupy that area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At a geologic time scale, Earth\u2019s climate is always changing and as climate changes, the best adapted species for a given geographical area likewise changes.&nbsp; However, for a variety of reasons, the arrival and establishment of the <a href=\"https:\/\/phys.org\/news\/2013-07-climate-diseqilibrium-norm-future.html\">best adapted vegetation may lag behind the climate change<\/a>.&nbsp; Biogeographers refer to vegetation\/climate disequilibrium in this case.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Note that achieving vegetation\/climate equilibrium may take hundreds to thousands of years, so the faster climate is changing, the less likely it is that the vegetation will remain in equilibrium with it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Holocene Epoch (from about 11,000 B.P. to present) was characterized by a relatively stable climate, and global vegetation has mostly equilibrated with the climate.&nbsp; But now we have entered the Anthropocene epoch in which anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are driving a high rate of climate warming.&nbsp; Consequently, long-lived vegetation is beginning to fall out of equilibrium with the climate over wide swaths of the terrestrial surface (albeit that humans have already massively altered global vegetation).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As the disequilibrium gets greater, forests in particular become more stressed and vulnerable to disturbances such as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.researchgate.net\/publication\/232695163_Climate_Change_and_Bark_Beetles_of_the_Western_United_States_and_Canada_Direct_and_Indirect_Effects\">insect outbreaks<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pnas.org\/doi\/abs\/10.1073\/pnas.2103135118\">fire<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The incidence of fire is already increasing around the world because of climate change and we can expect that trend to continue.&nbsp; For example, my simulations of <a href=\"https:\/\/people.wou.edu\/~taylors\/es476_hydro\/poster_2018\/1_Turner_etal_2015_Willmatte_Climate_change_Nick.pdf\">vegetation change in the Willamette Basin<\/a> (Western USA) project a several fold increase in the incidence of forest fire in coming decades as the climate changes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The carbon cycle consequences of a growing vegetation\/climate disequilibrium are significant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>1.&nbsp; More fires mean more direct emissions of CO<sub>2<\/sub> and more woody residues (dead trees), which will eventually decompose and emit CO<sub>2<\/sub>. &nbsp;Local photosynthesis (CO<sub>2<\/sub> uptake) is reduced in recently burned areas until the vegetation leaf area recovers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>2.&nbsp; Forests stressed by climate change are increasingly vulnerable to pests and pathogens.&nbsp; As with fire, associated damage to trees reduces growth and may cause mortality, and the residual dead trees gradually decompose and return CO<sub>2<\/sub> to the atmosphere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>3.&nbsp; Climate change is increasing <a href=\"https:\/\/blog.ucsusa.org\/carly-phillips\/what-is-vapor-pressure-deficit-vpd-and-what-is-its-connection-to-wildfires\/\">Vapor Pressure Deficits<\/a> (the drying power of the atmosphere), which tends to reduce stomatal opening and hence reduce photosynthesis and uptake of CO<sub>2<\/sub>.&nbsp; Plant species are adapted to a specific range of VPD and <a href=\"https:\/\/nph.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full\/10.1111\/nph.16485\">can die<\/a> when VPDs exceed their tolerance.&nbsp; Interestingly, the increasing concentration of CO<sub>2<\/sub> from fossil fuel emissions compensates to some degree for VPD-induced stomatal closure because CO<sub>2<\/sub> diffusion into the stomata increases as the concentration gradient between leaf exterior and interior rises.&nbsp; The net effect of these opposing factors varies geographically depending on many variables.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The global impact of increasing disequilibrium between vegetation and climate on the carbon cycle is concerning because it will likely reduce the current terrestrial carbon \u201csink\u201d.&nbsp; At the global scale, the net effect of biological carbon sources and sinks on land is a carbon uptake equivalent to about <a href=\"https:\/\/www.globalcarbonproject.org\/carbonbudget\/22\/highlights.htm\">29% of fossil fuel emissions<\/a>.&nbsp; Much of that carbon accumulation is in wood and soil.&nbsp; The effects of vegetation\/climate disequilibrium may reduce the current rate of land-based sequestration, which would leave more fossil fuel-based CO<sub>2<\/sub> emissions in the atmosphere.&nbsp; The annual increase in atmospheric CO<sub>2 <\/sub>concentration has increased in recent decades (Figure 1), mostly because of increasing fossil fuel emissions.&nbsp; In the absence of strong emissions reductions, any draw down of the terrestrial sink will tend to further increase that annual uptick in concentration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Silvaculturalists must have a long planning horizon and some have already <a href=\"https:\/\/www2.gov.bc.ca\/gov\/content\/industry\/forestry\/managing-our-forest-resources\/silviculture\/tree-species-selection\/tool-introduction\/climate-change-adaptation\">begun to factor in vegetation\/climate equilibrium<\/a> in their tree planting prescriptions.\u00a0 They use spatially-explicit projections of climate change from global and regional climate models, along with studies of tree species\u2019 distribution based on historical climate.\u00a0 Given the high certainty of long-term climate change, anyone who plants a tree in the coming decades and centuries\u00a0 \u0336\u00a0 for wood production, climate change mitigation, or various other good reasons\u00a0 \u0336\u00a0 should <a>attempt to account for projected climate change over the lifetime of the tree.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"945\" height=\"567\" src=\"https:\/\/osu-wams-blogs-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com\/blogs.dir\/3635\/files\/2023\/09\/image-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-903\" srcset=\"https:\/\/osu-wams-blogs-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com\/blogs.dir\/3635\/files\/2023\/09\/image-1.png 945w, https:\/\/osu-wams-blogs-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com\/blogs.dir\/3635\/files\/2023\/09\/image-1-300x180.png 300w, https:\/\/osu-wams-blogs-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com\/blogs.dir\/3635\/files\/2023\/09\/image-1-768x461.png 768w, https:\/\/osu-wams-blogs-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com\/blogs.dir\/3635\/files\/2023\/09\/image-1-500x300.png 500w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 945px) 100vw, 945px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Figure 1.\u00a0 Mean annual carbon dioxide growth rate.\u00a0 Bars are the decadal averages.\u00a0\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/gml.noaa.gov\/ccgg\/trends\/gl_gr.html\">Image Credit NOAA<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>David P. Turner \/ September 15, 2023 Planting a tree should include a species selection process that factors in projected climate change over the lifetime of the tree.\u00a0 Image Credit. Equilibrium between vegetation and climate refers to the state in &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/technosphere\/2023\/09\/15\/carbon-cycle-consequences-of-vegetation-climate-mismatch\/\">Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9521,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1390634],"tags":[1393950,1394218,1394215,1393934,1394217,1394216,1394220,1394221,1394222,1394219,1394214],"class_list":["post-900","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-short-form","tag-anthropocene","tag-carbon-cycle","tag-climate","tag-climate-change","tag-disequilibrium","tag-equilibrium","tag-fire","tag-insect-outbreak","tag-silvaculture","tag-terrestrial-carbon-sink","tag-vegetation"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - 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