{"id":234,"date":"2020-02-28T19:16:47","date_gmt":"2020-02-28T19:16:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/technosphere\/?p=234"},"modified":"2021-03-02T20:54:59","modified_gmt":"2021-03-02T20:54:59","slug":"the-icarus-scenario","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/technosphere\/2020\/02\/28\/the-icarus-scenario\/","title":{"rendered":"The Icarus Scenario"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"

Jacob Peter Gowy’s The Flight of Icarus (1635\u20131637), courtesy of Prado Museum<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

David\nP. Turner \/ February 26, 2020<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The future invades the present much more so in recent\ntimes than was the case in previous generations.  That\u2019s because the global human enterprise\n(the technosphere<\/a>)\nhas initiated an era of global climate change \u2013 with potentially catastrophic\nimpacts on future generations.  Thus,\nhumans must now worry more about the future than might otherwise be the\ncase.  While we<\/a>\nstill have time, humanity must alter course \u2013 we\nmust redesign the technosphere<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earth system scientists have a responsibility to\ndiscern coming changes to the Earth system as clearly as possible, and to evaluate\npotential mitigation strategies.  The\ntime horizon of these scenarios for global change are commonly on the order of\na century<\/a>,\nor perhaps several centuries.  But examining\nscenarios that play out over hundreds to thousands of years is also necessary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the course of writing a book<\/a>\nabout global environmental change, I developed a rather dystopian\nlong-timeframe Earth system scenario.  I\ncall it the Icarus Scenario.  This story\nof Earth\u2019s future is based on emerging Earth system science knowledge about\npast episodes of drastic global change over the course of geologic\nhistory.  On multiple occasions, tectonic\nmovements have initiated periods of massive greenhouse gas emissions (sound\nfamiliar?) that led to strong global warming, followed by major alterations in\nocean circulation and chemistry, as well as profound changes in the biosphere\n(including mass extinction events in some cases).  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Humanity might now be initiating the next iteration of\nthat\nsequence<\/a>, and the Icarus myth seems an appropriate referent.  Icarus was the figure from Greek mythology\nwho, with his father, constructed wings of feathers and wax.  His father warned him not to fly too close to\nthe sun for fear of melting the wax, but Icarus got carried away with the joy\nof flight.  He indeed flew too close to\nthe sun, his wings disintegrated, and he crashed to his death on the ground.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A contemporary version of this myth might be manifest as the on-going build-out of the technosphere (with associated greenhouse gas emissions), warnings by scientists about the possibility of overheating the planet, continued fossil-fuel-based technosphere growth driven by an exuberant market economy, and global warming sufficient to push the Earth system through a series of tipping points<\/a> that catastrophically warm the planet.  Recent geophysical observations suggest the risk<\/a> of initiating that sequence is increasing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We can\u2019t of course know the future.  But there are several compelling reasons why\nwe as a global collective should grapple with the Icarus Scenario.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is likely that the wealthiest people in the world\nwill be able to largely insulate themselves from impacts of climate change over\nthe next generation or so.  Consequently,\nsupporting societal investment in mitigation climate change (e.g. the Green New\nDeal) may not be a high priority. \nHowever, if their legacy will amount to nothing in a somewhat longer\nperspective, they might pitch in more vigorously (thanks Jeff\nBezos<\/a>!).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Icarus Scenario also strengthens the rationale for\ninvesting in climate change mitigation as soon as possible to reduce the\npossibility of passing a threshold and being unable to reverse the trajectory of\nthe Earth system towards catastrophic warming. \nThe precautionary\nprinciple<\/a> is more readily invoked as the magnitude of a threat\nincreases, and the Icarus Scenario is the ultimate threat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Being an inveterate optimist, I also formulated in my book a long-term Earth system scenario in which the technosphere builds a sustainable relationship with the rest of the Earth system.\u00a0 My No\u00f6sphere Scenario (pronounced like noah-sphere) assumes cultural evolution towards a high technology global civilization that self-regulates to avoid overheating the planet and consuming the biosphere.\u00a0 The root word nous refers to mind \u2013 Earth becomes a planet organized by collective thought.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Recommended Audio: Epilogue from Everest motion picture<\/a> (Dario Marianelli)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

David P. Turner \/ February 26, 2020 The future invades the present much more so in recent times than was the case in previous generations.  That\u2019s because the global human enterprise (the technosphere) has initiated an era of global climate … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9521,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1390634],"tags":[97135,1393912,1393909,1393913,1393911,1393910,1393914,1389001,1393908],"class_list":["post-234","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-short-form","tag-earth-system-science","tag-green-new-deal","tag-icarus-scenario","tag-jeff-bezos","tag-mass-extinction-event","tag-noosphere-scenario","tag-precautionary-principle","tag-technosphere","tag-tipping-points"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Icarus Scenario - Taming the Technosphere<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A contemporary version of the Icarus myth might be manifest as the on-going build-out of the technosphere (with associated greenhouse gas emissions), warnings by scientists about the possibility of overheating the planet, continued fossil-fuel-based technosphere growth driven by an exuberant market economy, and global warming sufficient to push the Earth system through a series of tipping points that catastrophically warm the planet. 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