{"id":1064,"date":"2023-11-27T21:37:44","date_gmt":"2023-11-27T21:37:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/strata\/?page_id=1064"},"modified":"2025-10-27T21:50:32","modified_gmt":"2025-10-27T21:50:32","slug":"groundbreaking","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/strata\/groundbreaking\/","title":{"rendered":"Groundbreaking: CEOAS research leads the way in understanding and preparing for Pacific Northwest geohazards"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By Nancy Steinberg<\/em>
Fall\/Winter 2023<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When her mother came to the Oregon coast for a visit, Felicia Olmeta-Schult felt it was only right to explain what to do in the case of an earthquake or tsunami. After all, she knew that the risk of such hazards hangs in the air in Oregon all the time, thanks to the usually-quiet Cascadia Subduction Zone where one tectonic plate dives beneath another. It\u2019s also Olmeta-Schult\u2019s job to teach people about such hazards, as she is Oregon Sea Grant\u2019s coastal hazards specialist. But this new information scared her mom a little.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt brought her some anxiety,\u201d Olmeta-Schult recalls. \u201cWhen she was driving on Highway 101 and saw the \u2018Entering a tsunami zone\u2019 signs, she was holding her breath.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n

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Felicia Olmeta-Schult<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Olmeta-Schult knows the feeling. \u201cOften people just freeze when there is an earthquake. They don\u2019t know what to do. It happened to me in a mini-earthquake in California before I had this job. I was washing dishes, I felt the earthquake, and I just froze.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

One antidote to this fear and inaction is more knowledge. The College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences is leading the way in understanding geohazards such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions in the Pacific Northwest, and in preparing communities for these events. These efforts are all tied together by an emphasis on collaboration and communication, including among scientific teams working on interconnected aspects of earthquake dynamics and with community groups to improve resilience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Synthesizing and filling holes in our knowledge<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A critical first step in seeking to understand the hazards themselves is a new cross-disciplinary, cross-institutional initiative focused on the Cascadia Subduction Zone. Dubbed CRESCENT, for Cascadia Region Earthquake Science Center, this collaboration will be led by scientists at University of Oregon and will include Pieter-Ewald Share, Andrew Meigs and Anne Tr\u00e9hu of CEOAS. CRESCENT, funded by the U.S. National Science Foundation at $15 million over five years, has a three-pronged structure. The program\u2019s roughly three dozen researchers will focus on foundational science, workforce development, and application and partnerships to increase resiliency of regional communities to the risks these hazards present.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why a regional research center? Share emphasizes the importance of tying disparate scientific threads together. \u201cWe are working with a complex, dynamic, interconnected tectonic system where all the parts are incompletely understood,\u201d he says. \u201cThe only way to holistically understand this system is to bring the Earth science community and their data and products together, and synthesize everything in a self-consistent manner. Progress on this front is extremely difficult otherwise.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Share notes that it is critical to understand this particular system, an active subduction zone. \u201cIf you look at subduction zones around the world, they produce the biggest earthquakes, there\u2019s no question,\u201d he says. \u201cAnd then there are all these cascading effects, beyond the earthquake itself. You have the potential for landslides, tsunamis, even fires. With our steep slopes and abundant rains, we could experience liquefaction [when the shaking of the Earth causes soils to lose their strength and therefore their ability to support structures].\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These compounded risks weigh on Share. \u201cIt\u2019s a very important problem,\u201d he says, \u201cAnd there are some devastating side effects to getting it wrong.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The only way to holistically understand this system is to bring the Earth science community and their data and products together<\/p>-Pieter-Ewald Share<\/cite><\/blockquote><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

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The research conducted by CRESCENT scientists will fill gaps in our knowledge, including quantifying the stress building up in the Cascadia system; determining where that stress might be relieved by identifying the weakest points, or faults, along the tectonic plate boundaries; mapping those faults throughout the system; determining what has happened at those faults when they have slipped in the past; and using information like the composition and densities of the materials in and around the faults to determine how much shaking will take place when they do rupture.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Will all of this information lead us to the holy grail of earthquake prediction? That\u2019s not currently the primary goal, Share explains. \u201cThere are no universally observed or accepted earthquake precursors that are predictive,\u201d he says. For this reason and several others, \u201cThe earthquake science community has moved away from \u2018predicting\u2019 and more toward \u2018forecasting,\u2019 putting a future big earthquake in probabilistic instead of deterministic terms.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe hazard of major faults in southern California, for example, are now spoken of in terms of percentages in number of years \u2014 for example, a particular fault section might have a 10% probability of earthquake rupture in the next 30 years,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another hazard: volcanoes<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While the Cascadia Subduction Zone is perhaps best known as the potential source for large earthquakes and resulting tsunamis, it also is the reason we have so many volcanoes in the Pacific Northwest, which present serious risks as well (see figure on p. 14). The 1980 eruption of Mount Saint Helens reminds us that the volcanoes in the Cascadia arc are considered active. Share says that while the initial focus of CRESCENT will be on earthquakes, the project will also shed light on regional volcanic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Adam Kent, CEOAS geologist and an associate dean, points out that forecasting is perhaps different for volcanoes compared to earthquakes, in part because there are more pre-eruption signals. \u201cThe thing about a volcano is typically, although not always, you get a much longer precursory phase. If Mount Hood was going to erupt, we\u2019d probably have weeks or months of recognizable signs, like seismic signals, changes in gasses emitted, changes in temperature in the hot springs, maybe changes in the shape of the volcano.\u201d It\u2019s a good thing that Mount Hood will likely throw these signs, as Kent explains that Hood is considered one of the top volcanic threats in the country.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Adam Kent<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

But forecasting volcanic eruptions is still no easy task. Volcanoes work via many invisible processes that we are only beginning to understand on a larger scale. \u201cIf I think about volcanoes, there are gaps all over the place in our understanding of the pretty dramatic physical and chemical processes happening about 10 kilometers below us, completely out of sight. So, we can only really tell what\u2019s going on by looking at either the remote record, or by looking at what happened last time,\u201d Kent says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kent adds that another confounding variable in our understanding of volcanoes is climate change. Shifts in precipitation patterns and groundwater hydrology could theoretically change certain eruptions called phreatic events. These eruptions happen when hot magma comes in contact with groundwater, creating a near-instant explosion as the trapped water expands and turns to steam. \u201cIf you change the hydrology near a volcano, we might expect changes to these kinds of eruptions in terms of frequency or severity,\u201d Kent says. The melting of glaciers off of the flanks of volcanoes as the Earth\u2019s temperatures rise might also change eruption frequency. Recent CEOAS research spearheaded by paleoclimatologist Alan Mix found that during the last ice age, 18,000 years ago, the rapid melting of ice covering volcanoes in western North America was associated with increased volcanic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIce cover to volcanoes is like a cork in a champagne bottle. Remove the icy cork and boom, the eruptions begin,\u201d Mix says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Community preparedness is key<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

CRESCENT will work with Felicia Olmeta-Schult and others to ensure that the latest science is translated into life-saving community education. She says that community preparedness for geohazards depends on many factors, including the type of hazard and where you live. Answering basic questions is a good starting point. These include, Is my home, school or work in a tsunami zone? If so, what is the safest evacuation route for me? Becoming informed is a vital first step to building community-wide resilience, she says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Disaster preparedness and response become even more challenging when layered with language and cultural complexities. Olmeta-Schult has been working on a project under the umbrella of the Cascadia Coastline and Peoples Hazards Research Hub, or Cascadia CoPes Hub, headquartered at CEOAS, to ensure preparedness among Latina\/o\/x communities on the Oregon Coast. She starts by trying to identify and address the daily challenges of marginalized and underserved communities (language barriers, access to resources) during what she calls \u201cblue sky\u201d days so they can be better prepared on the inevitable \u201cgray sky\u201d days when emergencies occur. The project\u2019s multi-pronged approach has resulted in increased awareness in the community and, interestingly, among the project\u2019s personnel as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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It’s important for people to know they’re not alone … in a neighborhood where people already do things like potlucks together, we are asking, how can we build on that?<\/p>-Felicia Olmeta-Schult<\/cite><\/blockquote><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

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For example, the group recently worked with Spanish-speaking communities in Seaside and Astoria. \u201cWe did a little training on map literacy. We have all these maps about tsunami zones and evacuation routes, but we realized that people don\u2019t really use maps anymore,\u201d Olmeta- Schult says \u201cEspecially if English is not your first language, the maps can be really disorienting. When you ask people to look at the map and say, \u2018Where is your home? Where is the school?\u2019 It takes a little while to figure that out. We\u2019re exploring the idea of making accurate but simpler maps, which might contain photos or icons.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the end, it\u2019s critical to strike a balance between empowering people and overwhelming them. Olmeta-Schult works towards this sweet spot by helping people understand the little things they can do in their own lives to improve resilience, and by focusing on ways that people can work together in times of crisis. \u201cIt\u2019s important for people to know they are not alone. For example, in a neighborhood where people already do things like potlucks together, we are asking, how can we build on that?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The Cascadia Subduction Zone is a place where two of Earth\u2019s tectonic plates meet, moving towards each other at a rate of about a half an inch per year. As the oceanic Juan de Fuca Plate is pushed beneath (subducted under) the North American Plate, it sometimes \u201cslips\u201d at shallower depths (marked in red under the Coast Range in the diagram), releasing a lot of built-up pressure at once, causing an earthquake. When the subducting plate descends and heats up it releases fluids which cause the overlying mantle to melt, forming magma. The magma rises to the surface to fuel the volcanoes we know as the Cascades. Image adapted from one created by the U.S. National Park Service.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n

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It’s all about connections<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

All of the efforts to understand and prepare for Cascadia disasters come down to community collaboration. This emphasis on community is obvious in Olmeta-Schult\u2019s work, but it\u2019s true for Cascadia science as well. Share well recognizes that CRESCENT will operate best by forming and maintaining community. \u201cWe\u2019ll be bringing together these diverse groups that usually would be doing great work, but they would be doing it separately. And we\u2019re getting them all into the same room to work on the same complex system of goals, and that\u2019s by far the most exciting part,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Pieter-Ewald Share<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThese connections with engineers, the community, with the workforce, with Indigenous groups \u2026 each has its own level of complexity, but as long as we keep working together, I think we\u2019re on the right path.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Abby P. Metzger contributed significant research and conceptual and editorial work to this story.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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BE PREPARED!<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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What to do before, during and after the Earth shakes<\/h3>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

The sleeping geological giants of the Pacific Northwest can go
off at any time, leading to an earthquake, tsunami or volcanic
eruption. It\u2019s simply best to be prepared, to know what to
do in the event of any of these disasters. Here are just a few
guidelines; see more at Oregon Department of Emergency Management<\/a>, Oregon Tsunami Clearinghouse<\/a>, or Oregon Coastal Hazards Ready (OCHR) Library & Mapper<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Before<\/h4>\n\n\n\n