Small estuaries, like those prevalent in the Pacific Northwest, are strongly coupled to their watersheds, and thus signs of climate change will show up visibly in these ecosystems. What this change will look like, and how it will affect our coastal communities and ecosystems, is the foundation of my research. For the full article check out the following link:<\/p>\n http:\/\/seagrant.oregonstate.edu\/sgpubs\/confluence-springsummer-2016<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Along with my normal blog post, I would like to re-post an article I was featured in for Oregon Sea Grant’s Confluence newsletter. I think the article gives a great overall perspective on my research and how it applies to … Continue reading
\nThe first question that should be asked in a research project, especially one viewed through the lens of Oregon Sea Grant\u2019s mission of connecting research and stakeholders, is simply, \u201cWhy does this matter?\u201d For me, the answer is that our coasts will change in response to climate change, and if we can find ways to more accurately predict what those changes might be, we\u2019ll have a better chance of being prepared. Experience has shown me that it\u2019s difficult to gain traction with stakeholders over the problem of climate change because of its nebulous nature. My research attempts to replace this \u201clooming shadow\u201d of a threat with something actionable that can be integrated directly into community planning. In this way, I believe my research and Oregon Sea Grant\u2019s base ethic of public service are aligned, as my work is specifically designed to create usable products for Pacific Northwest communities.
\n![\"kaiparker008tw_25085761119_o\"](\"http:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/seagrantscholars\/files\/2016\/06\/kaiparker008tw_25085761119_o-300x225.jpg\")
My research uses numerical modeling to examine estuaries in Tillamook and Coos Bays as they change through time, driven by the predicted future climate. The current state of the practice for this type of study is the \u201cbathtub model,\u201d in which one simply raises the water level by the predicted amount of sea-level rise. However, this model ignores other effects of climate change such as precipitation, wind, and wave action, resulting in oversimplified data. My procedure greatly expands this paradigm through something called a continual hydrodynamic model run, which captures all the ways in which climate change might affect an estuary.
\nMy advisor, professor David Hill in Oregon State University\u2019s College of Engineering, and I have attended several stakeholder meetings regarding coastal hazards and local community planning, to present our research and to get feedback as to what products might be most useful. We intend to continue to be a presence at such meetings and to provide a scientific resource to communities interested in learning how climate change might affect them. While we have not \u201csolved\u201d the question of climate change\u2019s effect on small estuaries, we are trying to answer the question, and I hope my research will eventually provide a universally usable tool to help coastal communities and ecosystems build resilience to climate change.
\nKai Parker is a doctoral candidate in coastal and ocean engineering in OSU\u2019s College of Engineering. He is a 2015\u201316 Robert E. Malouf Fellow funded by Oregon Sea Grant.<\/em><\/p>\n