{"id":2024,"date":"2023-12-24T20:53:05","date_gmt":"2023-12-24T20:53:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/lackey\/?p=2024"},"modified":"2023-12-26T17:07:34","modified_gmt":"2023-12-26T17:07:34","slug":"seminar-columbia-river-basin-how-would-ending-fishing-and-closing-hatcheries-change-wild-salmon-and-steelhead-abundance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/lackey\/2023\/12\/24\/seminar-columbia-river-basin-how-would-ending-fishing-and-closing-hatcheries-change-wild-salmon-and-steelhead-abundance\/","title":{"rendered":"PACIFIC SALMON COMMISSION SEMINAR \u2014 Columbia River Basin: How Would Ending Fishing and Closing Hatcheries Change Wild Salmon and Steelhead Abundance?*"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

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Robert T. Lackey<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Department of Fisheries, Wildlife, and Conservation Sciences<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oregon State University<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corvallis, Oregon\u00a0 97331<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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https:\/\/media.oregonstate.edu\/media\/t\/1_xoz803bc<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Seminar Summary<\/span>: The overall public policy goal of restoring Pacific salmon wild runs in the Columbia River Basin appears to enjoy widespread public support.  Billions of dollars have failed to reverse the long-term, overall decline.  To answer the question of whether the effort to rebuild wild runs through the release of hatchery-produced salmon, I asked 58 well-known salmon scientists to predict (anonymously) how the overall abundance of Columbia River Basin salmon (including steelhead) would change after 20 years if fishing was stopped and hatcheries were closed.  About 83% predicted that current (wild plus hatchery) salmon abundance (overall Columbia Basin run) would decline without hatchery stocking and fishing.  Most surveyed experts predicted that stopping fishing and closing hatcheries would not greatly change the current overall wild-only abundance in the Basin.  Based on these results, salmon fishing and hatchery additions are not currently believed to be among the major drivers of the low abundance of wild salmon in the Columbia River Basin.  The current overall abundance of wild salmon in the Columbia River Basin (roughly 3-5% of pre-1850s levels) is within the expected range, given the amount and availability of high-quality salmon habitat, past and current ecological changes, and overarching trends in oceanic and climate conditions.  Thus,<\/span> stopping fishing and closing hatcheries likely will not drastically change the current wild salmon abundance in the Basin \u2014 and it may well drive wild runs even lower, according to many experts.<\/span><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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*Presented at a Pacific Salmon Commission (Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada) seminar on November 29, 2023.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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————–<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Click Here for the Seminar Link<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Robert T. Lackey Department of Fisheries, Wildlife, and Conservation Sciences Oregon State University Corvallis, Oregon\u00a0 97331 *********************** https:\/\/media.oregonstate.edu\/media\/t\/1_xoz803bc *********************** Seminar Summary: The overall public policy goal of restoring Pacific salmon wild runs in the Columbia River Basin appears to enjoy widespread public support.  Billions of dollars have failed to reverse the long-term, overall decline.  To… Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4014,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1237562],"tags":[140586,1237561,716983,150862,2515,150858,309,2794,150861],"class_list":["post-2024","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ecological-policy","tag-conservation","tag-conservation-biology","tag-ecosystem-health","tag-environmental-protection","tag-environmental-science","tag-environnmental-science","tag-fisheries","tag-natural-resources","tag-restoration-ecology"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p94BFg-wE","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":1693,"url":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/lackey\/2021\/03\/21\/defending-reality-revisited-two-decades-later\/","url_meta":{"origin":2024,"position":0},"title":"Defending Reality \u2014 Revisiting Two Decades Later","author":"Robert Lackey","date":"March 21, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"by Robert T. Lackey Earlier this month, a colleague asked me if anything had changed in the twenty years since the publication of my op-ed about the prevalence of \u201cdelusional reality\u201d regarding the future of wild salmon in California, Oregon, Washington, British Columbia, and Idaho.\u00a0 He added, \u201cperhaps you would\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Ecological Policy"","block_context":{"text":"Ecological Policy","link":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/lackey\/category\/ecological-policy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/osu-wams-blogs-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com\/blogs.dir\/2961\/files\/2021\/03\/image.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":1190,"url":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/lackey\/2019\/02\/12\/does-the-public-expect-too-much-from-science\/","url_meta":{"origin":2024,"position":1},"title":"Does the Public Expect Too Much from Science?","author":"Robert Lackey","date":"February 12, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"by Robert T. Lackey More than two decades ago, while Deputy Director of EPA\u2019s national research laboratory in Corvallis, Oregon, I presented a talk to a group of community activists about why salmon populations along the West Coast have dropped to less than 5% of their historical levels. \u00a0I\u2019ve given\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Ecological Policy"","block_context":{"text":"Ecological Policy","link":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/lackey\/category\/ecological-policy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/lackey\/files\/2019\/01\/Blog-Logo.png?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":2371,"url":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/lackey\/2025\/08\/01\/how-do-scientists-lead-people-into-the-trap-of-assuming-that-natural-is-preferred-policy-wise\/","url_meta":{"origin":2024,"position":2},"title":"How Do Scientists Lead People into the Trap of Assuming that “Natural” is Preferred Policy-wise?","author":"Robert Lackey","date":"August 1, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Robert T. Lackey Department of Fisheries, Wildlife, and Conservation Sciences Oregon State University \u221e\u221e\u221e\u221e\u221e\u221e In disciplines such as environmental science, fisheries and wildlife management, and environmental management, I am concerned that the scientific enterprise has become captive to a particular worldview, a preferred policy preference \u2014 the idea that \u201cnature\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Ecological Policy"","block_context":{"text":"Ecological Policy","link":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/lackey\/category\/ecological-policy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/osu-wams-blogs-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com\/blogs.dir\/2961\/files\/2025\/08\/Blog-Artwork-Logo.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":1017,"url":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/lackey\/2018\/08\/07\/wild-salmon-recovery\/","url_meta":{"origin":2024,"position":3},"title":"Wild Salmon Recovery in the Western United States: Four Facts and a Corollary","author":"Robert Lackey","date":"August 7, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"by Robert T. Lackey Despite a few recent newspaper headlines heralding several \u201crecord\u201d salmon runs, most salmon runs in California, Oregon, Washington, and Idaho are a mere shadow of their pre-1848 levels.\u00a0 Further, even most of these relatively small remaining runs are largely maintained by releases of hatchery-raised fish.\u00a0 Wild\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Ecological Policy"","block_context":{"text":"Ecological Policy","link":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/lackey\/category\/ecological-policy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/lackey\/files\/2019\/01\/Blog-Logo.png?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":2132,"url":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/lackey\/2024\/11\/24\/the-emergence-of-religious-ecology\/","url_meta":{"origin":2024,"position":4},"title":"The Emergence of Religious Ecology","author":"Robert Lackey","date":"November 24, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Robert T. 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Lackey Department of Fisheries, Wildlife, and Conservation Sciences Oregon State University February 1, 2025 What is the proper role of government employees when their personal policy preferences differ from those of their employer?\u00a0 Specifically, is it acceptable for government employees to play a role in sweetheart or sue\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Ecological Policy"","block_context":{"text":"Ecological Policy","link":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/lackey\/category\/ecological-policy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/osu-wams-blogs-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com\/blogs.dir\/2961\/files\/2025\/02\/image-4.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/lackey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2024","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/lackey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/lackey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/lackey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4014"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/lackey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2024"}],"version-history":[{"count":34,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/lackey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2024\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2082,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/lackey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2024\/revisions\/2082"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/lackey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2024"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/lackey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2024"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/lackey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2024"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}