{"id":1017,"date":"2018-08-07T21:53:46","date_gmt":"2018-08-07T21:53:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/lackey\/?p=1017"},"modified":"2022-10-25T01:32:48","modified_gmt":"2022-10-25T01:32:48","slug":"wild-salmon-recovery","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/lackey\/2018\/08\/07\/wild-salmon-recovery\/","title":{"rendered":"Wild Salmon Recovery in the Western United States: Four Facts and a Corollary"},"content":{"rendered":"
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by<\/em><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Robert T. Lackey<\/strong><\/a><\/h3>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Despite a few recent newspaper headlines heralding several \u201crecord\u201d salmon runs, most salmon runs in California, Oregon, Washington, and Idaho are a mere shadow of their pre-1848 levels.\u00a0 Further, even most of these relatively small remaining runs are largely maintained by releases of hatchery-raised fish.\u00a0 Wild<\/em> salmon \u2014 typically defined as those whose parents spawned naturally in natural habitat \u2014 comprise only a small portion of most runs and their overall abundance is a sliver of historical levels<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The decline has been well known and for more than 160 years<\/a> there have been concerted efforts to recover salmon runs.\u00a0 Especially during the past three decades, the extent and cost of formal recovery efforts for wild<\/em> salmon have substantially increased \u2014 in large part a response to requirements of the Endangered Species Act (ESA).<\/p>\n

While using hatcheries to sustain relatively large salmon runs is plausible \u2014 although technically challenging \u2014 the requirements of the ESA relative to wild<\/em> salmon have made the role of hatcheries in sustaining or increasing runs legally contentious.<\/p>\n

In my interactions with professional colleagues over many years, they agree \u2014 usually only when speaking unofficially<\/a> \u2014 that current efforts will not<\/u> successfully recover wild<\/em> salmon to abundances that would assure self-sustainability and support sizable sport and commercial harvest.\u00a0 Such a level of abundance would need to be at least a third or more of the typical pre-1848 run size.<\/p>\n

Even with the very large expenditures to recover wild<\/em> salmon, what pushes the most knowledgeable people<\/a> to the stunning conclusion that these well-meaning efforts will fail?<\/p>\n

To succeed, a wild salmon recovery strategy must address several overarching and undisputed realities about the West Coast that have developed over many years.\u00a0 Without addressing these realities, any wild salmon recovery strategy will fall far short of expectations.\u00a0 It will be added to a long list \u2014 well over a century in the making \u2014 of noble, but failed salmon recovery strategies.\u00a0 Even if society continues to spend billions to restore wild salmon runs, these efforts ultimately will be only marginally successful.<\/p>\n

What are these realities and how must they be changed to recover wild<\/em> salmon to even a third of their historical level?\u00a0\u00a0 Let\u2019s look at the four key ones.<\/p>\n

Fact 1:<\/strong> \u00a0<\/span>\u00a0Overall, wild salmon abundance<\/a> south of the Canadian border, is very low and has been so for a long time.\u00a0 Most spawning runs are far less than 10% of their pre-1848 levels.\u00a0 Over two dozen Endangered Species Act \u201cspecies\u201d (distinct population segments) are now listed as threatened or endangered.\u00a0 Many runs have already disappeared and more will follow unless there is a reversal of the long-term downward trajectory.<\/p>\n

Fact 2:<\/strong>\u00a0<\/span> \u00a0We have been well aware for a long time of the main causes<\/a> of the dire state of salmon runs along the West Coast. \u00a0These causes are well documented scientifically and include mining, dams, water pollution, habitat alteration, over-fishing, irrigation water withdrawals, predation on salmon by many species, competition with hatchery-produced salmon and other, often non-native fish species, and many other causes.<\/p>\n

Fact 3:<\/strong>\u00a0<\/span> \u00a0Anywhere wild salmon were once plentiful (Europe, Asian Far East, Eastern North America), the decline in their abundance is roughly inversely proportional to the area\u2019s growth in the human population<\/a>. \u00a0Over decades and centuries, as the human population expanded in these regions, the size of salmon runs declined to minuscule levels.\u00a0 Since 1848, the West Coast is playing out similarly for wild salmon.\u00a0 For example, from a pre-1848 human population level of a few hundred thousand, California, Oregon, Washington, and Idaho are now home to 50 million people. Over the same time period, wild salmon abundance in the four States has declined from roughly 50 million to a few million.\u00a0 And the future?\u00a0 Assuming expected human population growth in these four States, by 2100 they will be home to somewhere between 150 and 200 million people \u2014 a tripling or quadrupling by the end of this century \u2014 barely 80 years from now.<\/p>\n

Fact 4:<\/strong><\/span> \u00a0\u00a0It is not just the sheer number of humans (Fact 3), but their individual and collective lifestyles<\/a> that reduce the abundance of wild salmon.\u00a0 In the absence of dramatic changes in economic policies and life-styles, future options<\/a> for restoring salmon runs to significant, sustainable levels will be greatly constrained. For example, by 2100, with 150-200 million people living in the 4 West Coast states, consider the additional<\/em> demand for houses, roads, Costcos, Starbucks, air conditioning, drinking water, office buildings \u2014 the list is a very long one.<\/p>\n

What about the potential of current wild salmon recovery efforts to change the long-term, downward trajectory for wild salmon in California, Oregon, Washington, and Idaho?<\/p>\n

Corollary 1<\/strong>:\u00a0<\/span> To succeed in restoring wild salmon runs to significant, sustainable levels, a wild salmon recovery strategy must change<\/em> the four facts or that strategy will fail.\u00a0 If society only continues to spend billions of dollars in quick-fix efforts to restore wild salmon runs, then in most cases these efforts will be only marginally successful and the long-term downward trajectory of wild salmon will continue.\u00a0 It is money spent on activities not likely to achieve recovery of wild salmon, however, it helps people feel better as they continue the behaviors and choices that preclude the recovery of wild salmon.\u00a0 As important, it also sustains a jobs program for scientists and other technocrats by funding the salmon recovery industry<\/a>.\u00a0 This industry has become a multi-billion dollar enterprise and collectively forms an influential advocacy group.<\/p>\n

Turning to the future to assess what is realistically plausible, maintaining sustainable populations of many highly valued non-native<\/em> West Coast fish species (e.g<\/em>., bluegill, walleye, smallmouth bass, largemouth bass, brook trout, and striped bass) is feasible, because these species, unlike salmon, are well adapted to the greatly altered<\/a> West Coast aquatic environments.\u00a0 Overall with a drastically altered aquatic environment, and not at all surprising, many nonnative fish species are doing well.\u00a0 Nor should it be surprising that wild salmon are struggling to hang on in environments for which they are poorly adapted.<\/p>\n

In conclusion, if society continues to ignore these four facts and the corollary, no one should be surprised by the lack of long-term success of wild salmon recovery efforts.\u00a0 Perhaps these billions of dollars being spent to recover wild salmon should be considered \u201cguilt money<\/a>\u201d \u2014 modern-day indulgences \u2014 a tax society and individuals willingly endure to alleviate collective and individual remorse about the sorry state of wild salmon.\u00a0 After all, it is money spent on activities unlikely to achieve the recovery of wild salmon, but it perhaps helps many people feel better as people continue the behaviors and choices that essentially preclude wild salmon recovery.<\/p>\n

***************<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

by Robert T. Lackey Despite a few recent newspaper headlines heralding several \u201crecord\u201d salmon runs, most salmon runs in California, Oregon, Washington, and Idaho are a mere shadow of their pre-1848 levels.\u00a0 Further, even most of these relatively small remaining runs are largely maintained by releases of hatchery-raised fish.\u00a0 Wild salmon \u2014 typically defined as… Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4014,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1237562],"tags":[97092,1237561,1324,2515,309,150850,2794,1398,3491,320,53939],"class_list":["post-1017","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ecological-policy","tag-california","tag-conservation-biology","tag-ecology","tag-environmental-science","tag-fisheries","tag-idaho","tag-natural-resources","tag-oregon","tag-restoration","tag-salmon","tag-washington"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p94BFg-gp","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":1854,"url":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/lackey\/2022\/09\/07\/what-would-happen-to-columbia-river-basin-wild-salmon-runs-if-hatchery-stocking-and-fishing-ended\/","url_meta":{"origin":1017,"position":0},"title":"What Would Happen to Columbia River Basin Wild Salmon Runs if Hatchery Stocking and Fishing Ended?","author":"Robert Lackey","date":"September 7, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Robert T. Lackey Department of Fisheries, Wildlife, and Conservation Sciences Oregon State University Corvallis, Oregon\u00a0 97331 Robert.Lackey@oregonstate.edu Citation:\u00a0 Lackey, Robert T.\u00a0 2022.\u00a0 What Would Happen to Columbia River Basin Wild Salmon Runs If Hatchery Stocking and Fishing Ended? \u00a0Published in an Oregon State University Blog, September 7. \u2248\u2248\u2248\u2248\u2248\u2248\u2248\u2248\u2248 Introduction \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Ecological Policy"","block_context":{"text":"Ecological Policy","link":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/lackey\/category\/ecological-policy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/osu-wams-blogs-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com\/blogs.dir\/2961\/files\/2022\/09\/image-2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":1693,"url":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/lackey\/2021\/03\/21\/defending-reality-revisited-two-decades-later\/","url_meta":{"origin":1017,"position":1},"title":"Defending Reality \u2014 Revisiting Two Decades Later","author":"Robert Lackey","date":"March 21, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"by Robert T. Lackey Earlier this month, a colleague asked me if anything had changed in the twenty years since the publication of my op-ed about the prevalence of \u201cdelusional reality\u201d regarding the future of wild salmon in California, Oregon, Washington, British Columbia, and Idaho.\u00a0 He added, \u201cperhaps you would\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Ecological Policy"","block_context":{"text":"Ecological Policy","link":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/lackey\/category\/ecological-policy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/osu-wams-blogs-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com\/blogs.dir\/2961\/files\/2021\/03\/image.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":2024,"url":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/lackey\/2023\/12\/24\/seminar-columbia-river-basin-how-would-ending-fishing-and-closing-hatcheries-change-wild-salmon-and-steelhead-abundance\/","url_meta":{"origin":1017,"position":2},"title":"PACIFIC SALMON COMMISSION SEMINAR \u2014 Columbia River Basin: How Would Ending Fishing and Closing Hatcheries Change Wild Salmon and Steelhead Abundance?*","author":"Robert Lackey","date":"December 24, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Robert T. Lackey Department of Fisheries, Wildlife, and Conservation Sciences Oregon State University Corvallis, Oregon\u00a0 97331 *********************** https:\/\/media.oregonstate.edu\/media\/t\/1_xoz803bc *********************** Seminar Summary: The overall public policy goal of restoring Pacific salmon wild runs in the Columbia River Basin appears to enjoy widespread public support.\u00a0 Billions of dollars have failed to reverse\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Ecological Policy"","block_context":{"text":"Ecological Policy","link":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/lackey\/category\/ecological-policy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1190,"url":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/lackey\/2019\/02\/12\/does-the-public-expect-too-much-from-science\/","url_meta":{"origin":1017,"position":3},"title":"Does the Public Expect Too Much from Science?","author":"Robert Lackey","date":"February 12, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"by Robert T. Lackey More than two decades ago, while Deputy Director of EPA\u2019s national research laboratory in Corvallis, Oregon, I presented a talk to a group of community activists about why salmon populations along the West Coast have dropped to less than 5% of their historical levels. \u00a0I\u2019ve given\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Ecological Policy"","block_context":{"text":"Ecological Policy","link":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/lackey\/category\/ecological-policy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/lackey\/files\/2019\/01\/Blog-Logo.png?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":2371,"url":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/lackey\/2025\/08\/01\/how-do-scientists-lead-people-into-the-trap-of-assuming-that-natural-is-preferred-policy-wise\/","url_meta":{"origin":1017,"position":4},"title":"How Do Scientists Lead People into the Trap of Assuming that “Natural” is Preferred Policy-wise?","author":"Robert Lackey","date":"August 1, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Robert T. Lackey Department of Fisheries, Wildlife, and Conservation Sciences Oregon State University \u221e\u221e\u221e\u221e\u221e\u221e In disciplines such as environmental science, fisheries and wildlife management, and environmental management, I am concerned that the scientific enterprise has become captive to a particular worldview, a preferred policy preference \u2014 the idea that \u201cnature\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Ecological Policy"","block_context":{"text":"Ecological Policy","link":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/lackey\/category\/ecological-policy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/osu-wams-blogs-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com\/blogs.dir\/2961\/files\/2025\/08\/Blog-Artwork-Logo.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":1212,"url":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/lackey\/2019\/03\/18\/axioms-that-help-deconstruct-ecological-policy\/","url_meta":{"origin":1017,"position":5},"title":"Axioms for Deconstructing Ecological Policy","author":"Robert Lackey","date":"March 18, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"by\u00a0 Robert T. Lackey Many of today\u2019s ecological policy issues are politically contentious, socially wrenching, and replete with scientific uncertainty.\u00a0 They are\u00a0often described as wicked, messy policy problems (e.g., reversing the decline of salmon;\u00a0 deciding on the proper role of wildfire on public lands;\u00a0 what to do, if anything, about\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Ecological Policy"","block_context":{"text":"Ecological Policy","link":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/lackey\/category\/ecological-policy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/lackey\/files\/2019\/01\/Blog-Logo.png?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/lackey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1017","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/lackey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/lackey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/lackey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4014"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/lackey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1017"}],"version-history":[{"count":23,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/lackey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1017\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1921,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/lackey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1017\/revisions\/1921"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/lackey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1017"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/lackey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1017"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/lackey\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1017"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}