{"id":199,"date":"2017-08-10T15:47:38","date_gmt":"2017-08-10T15:47:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/lackey\/?page_id=199"},"modified":"2022-09-05T18:05:56","modified_gmt":"2022-09-05T18:05:56","slug":"research","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/lackey\/research\/","title":{"rendered":"Research"},"content":{"rendered":"

Pacific Northwest 2100 Project<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

Providing Ecosystems Services for an Additional 50+ Million PNW Residents:\u00a0 <\/em><\/strong><\/span>The Challenge to Natural Resource and Environmental Agencies<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Project Leader:\u00a0 \u00a0Robert T. Lackey<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Three overarching policy realities will drive natural resource and environmental agencies in the Pacific Northwest through this century: \u00a0\u00a0(1) the likely dramatic increase in the numbers of humans inhabiting Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and British Columbia; \u00a0(2) a changing climate which will impose different ecological constraints on many species; \u00a0and (3) the ongoing and intensifying collective demand for ecosystem services.<\/p>\n

\"\"Each of these three policy factors is critical in driving future ecological changes in the region, and each is inextricably intertwined. \u00a0Future public policy discussion about ecological issues (i.e., salmon recovery, spotted owls, marbled murrelets, bull trout, wildfire, water quality and quantity, energy development, etc.) will be substantially constrained by the number of humans in this region and their overall demand for ecosystem services. The current challenge facing all natural resource and environmental agencies is to deliver ever greater levels of ecosystem services in a way that does not irreparably alter the very ecosystems providing those services. This challenge will become increasingly greater through this century as climate changes, whether caused largely by human activities or by natural processes and cycles.<\/p>\n

The trajectory of human population growth in the United States, in general, and the Pacific Northwest, in particular, is not often a formal factor in dialog about ecological policy. Because it is arguably the overpowering driver defining future ecological policy options, it should be seriously analyzed and considered if alternative ecological policies are to be accurately accessed. \u00a0For example, in the Pacific Northwest (Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and British Columbia), if the average annual growth rate in the human population for the past half-century continues, the current population of approximately 15 million will swell to 85 million by 2100.<\/p>\n

As the number of humans increases in the Pacific Northwest, their collective demand for ecosystem services will increase. Ecosystem services are classified as:<\/p>\n