{"id":1121,"date":"2026-08-17T12:57:12","date_gmt":"2026-08-17T19:57:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/joneslab\/?page_id=1121"},"modified":"2026-08-17T14:57:02","modified_gmt":"2026-08-17T21:57:02","slug":"genomic-demography","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/joneslab\/genomic-demography\/","title":{"rendered":"Genomic demography"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\n

Research area<\/p>\n

Genomic demography<\/h1>\n

Using genomes to predict how forest populations change<\/h2>\n

We connect genetic variation recorded within tree genomes to the demographic processes that shape forest communities through time.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

\n

Collaborative research:<\/strong> This work is conducted in collaboration with James O\u2019Dwyer at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign<\/a> and the O\u2019Dwyer Lab<\/a>, and with Jim Lutz at Utah State University<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n\n

\"Old-growth
Wind River Forest Dynamics Plot. Photo: Jim Lutz.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n\n
\n

The central idea<\/p>\n

Genomes retain a memory of population change<\/h2>\n

Population size, competition and life history leave recognizable signatures in patterns of genetic variation. By combining these genomic signatures with forest census data, we can estimate how strongly different tree populations fluctuate and improve predictions of future community dynamics.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

\n\n
\"Figure<\/a>
Study overview.<\/strong> A genomic-demography workflow linking population genomic data, forest censuses and a model of population dynamics. From O\u2019Dwyer et al. (2025), Science<\/em>. View the publication<\/a>. Photo credit within figure: Dorothy Loudermilk.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Figures from the study<\/h2>

Figures from O\u2019Dwyer et al. (2025), Science<\/em>. View the publication<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"Map<\/a>
Figure 1. The forest community and genomic sampling.<\/strong> The study links genomic data to a mapped forest plot at Wind River, Washington. Filled points mark sampled trees, while open points show other individuals from the eight focal species that dominate the plot.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
\"Comparison<\/a>
Figure 2. Genomes predict population fluctuations.<\/strong> Observed changes in species\u2019 relative abundance are compared with predictions derived from genomic estimates. Their agreement shows that genetic data can recover how strongly tree populations fluctuate through time.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
\"Relationship<\/a>
Figure 4. Abundance reflects demographic strategy.<\/strong> Species with larger forest populations also show greater inferred year-to-year demographic variance. This pattern supports life-history complementarity by connecting relative abundance to differences in population dynamics.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n
\n

Why it matters<\/h2>\n

Long-term forest censuses remain essential, but genomic data can add predictive information from a single sampling period. This creates a new path for forecasting population dynamics in diverse forests where decades of demographic observations may not yet exist.<\/p>\n

Read the Science paper<\/a><\/div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Research area Genomic demography Using genomes to predict how forest populations change We connect genetic variation recorded within tree genomes to the demographic processes that shape forest communities through time. Collaborative research: This work is conducted in collaboration with James O\u2019Dwyer at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign and the O\u2019Dwyer Lab, and with Jim Lutz […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3794,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"page-no-title","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-1121","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/P3CtpG-i5","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/joneslab\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1121","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/joneslab\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/joneslab\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/joneslab\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3794"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/joneslab\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1121"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/joneslab\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1121\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1159,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/joneslab\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1121\/revisions\/1159"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.oregonstate.edu\/joneslab\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1121"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}