The data shown on this page was generated using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) for a research project with researchers from Oregon State University (OSU), scientists at the NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), and farmers in Oregon and Colorado.
Where does the data come from?
CESM is a global Earth system model maintained by NCAR and used in climate projections such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). CESM combines models of processes happening in our atmosphere, land surface, ocean, and sea ice to produce computer simulations of Earth’s past, present, and future climate states. CESM is a collaborative project drawing on Earth system science research across the globe.
Modeling and Uncertainty:
All models include uncertainty. This uncertainty is represented by the shaded areas in the charts above, which shows a range of possibilities. The darker line within the shaded areas shows an average, or most likely, expected outcome within the range of possibilities.
Spatial Scale and Inputs:
This modeled data is generated with one degree grid cells, which are approximately 60×50 miles in the Willamette Valley, Oregon and 55×55 miles in Northern Colorado. Key inputs include soil properties (texture and carbon content) and vegetation cover (forests, grasslands, and crop regions), which are described by surface datasets that are used as inputs to the land model.
Oregon Data:
Figure 1: Time-series plot of the total number of hot and cold days per year from 1850 to 2100 for the one degree grid cell in which Salem, Oregon is located. The threshold of 100 degrees Fahrenheit for hot days was chosen based on anecdotal evidence from the research team that extended time at that temperature impacts many of the crops grown in this region. The threshold of 32 degrees Fahrenheit for cold days was chosen because this is freezing point and many plants are impacted by freezing temperatures. Shaded areas show ensemble ranges from 20 ensemble runs in the CESM2-LE. Dark lines represent the ensemble mean.Figure 2: Time-series plots of the first and last freezing date per year from 1850 to 2100 for the onedegree grid cell in which Salem, Oregon is located. Figure shows that the average first date of freezing each year is moving from sometime in November to sometime in January, and the average last date of freezing is moving from sometime in April to sometime in February. We chose to share this data to investigate how important freezing dates were to farmers’ crop choices, planting dates, and amendment structure. Shaded areas show ensemble ranges from 20 ensemble runs in the CESM2-LE. Dark lines represent the ensemble mean.Figure 3: Seasonal plots of monthly low and high temperatures where 1 on the x-axis represents January and 12 represents December for the one degree grid cell in which Salem, Oregon is located. The figure shows the mean decadal monthly temperatures for three periods – 1850s (purple), 2010s (light blue), and 2090s (red) – as generated by the CESM2-LE. For comparison, we included observationally derived data from Salem, Oregon, that were taken from the PRISM dataset (dashed blue line) for the 2010 decade. The dark line shows the 10-year mean and the shading shows +/- one standard deviation for each decade.Figure 4: Maps of July mean decadal high temperatures show not only change over time, but also the spatial resolution of the data. The black dot identifies the location of Salem, Oregon, where previous time series data were taken from. We included this figure to provide interviewees with a clear understanding of the spatial scale at which this data is generated and to show that patterns of changing temperatures over time are not occurring the same in all areas of the Pacific Northwest where the Willamette Valley, Oregon is located.Figure 5: Time-series plot of the total number of days with more than 30 millimeters or less than 2 millimeter of precipitation per year from 1850 to 2100 for the one-degree grid cell in which Salem, Oregon is located. The thresholds of 30 mm and 2 mm were based on anecdotal knowledge of what might be considered a significantly high or low amount of precipitation while farming. Dark lines represent the ensemble mean, darker shading shows +/- one standard deviation, and the lighter shaded areas show ensemble ranges from 20 ensemble runs in the CESM2-LE.Figure 6: Seasonal plots of precipitation and soil water content where 1 on the x-axis represents January and 12 represents December for the one-degree grid cell in which Salem, Oregon is located. The figure shows the mean monthly decadal precipitation means across 20 ensemble members for three periods – 1850s (purple), 2010s (solid light blue), and 2090s (red) – as generated by the CESM2-LE. For comparison, we included observationally derived data of precipitation from Salem, Oregon, that were taken from the PRISM dataset for the 2010 decade (dashed dark blue line). The dark line shows the 10-year mean and the shading shows +/- one standard deviation for each decade.Figure 7: Time-series plot of mean July soil moisture at 0-10 centimeters depth from 1850 to 2100 for the one degree grid cell in which Salem, Oregon is located. This plot was added to the examples we shared with interviewees after conducting a trial interview in which interviewees expressed a desire to see projected soil moisture. Lighter shaded areas show ensemble ranges from 20 ensemble runs in the CESM2-LE, and the darker shading shows +/- one standard deviation. Dark lines represent the CESM2-LE ensemble mean.
The Oregon data has been published in:
Emard, K., O. Cameron, W. Wieder, D. Lombardozzi, R. Morss, & N. Sobhani. 2024. Integrating farmers’ perspectives into Earth system model development: Interviews with end users in the Willamette Valley, Oregon to guide actionable science. Weather, Climate, and Society, 16(3): 453-465. https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-23-0066.1
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