The data on this website were generated using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) for a research collaboration between scholars at Oregon State University (OSU), scientists at the NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), and farmers in Oregon and Colorado.

Where does the data come from?

CESM is a global Earth system model maintained by NCAR and used in climate projections such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). CESM combines models of processes happening in our atmosphere, land surface, ocean, and sea ice to produce computer simulations of Earth’s past, present, and future climate states. CESM is a collaborative project drawing on Earth system science research across the globe.

Modeling and Uncertainty:

All models include uncertainty. In our data, this uncertainty is represented by shaded areas in the charts, which show a range of possibilities. The darker lines within shaded areas shows an average, or most likely, expected outcome within the range of possibilities. Modeled data provide a solid understanding of trends over the long term, but they should not be used to pinpoint exact measurements at exact times.

Spatial Scale and Inputs:

These modeled data were generated within one degree grid cells, which are approximately 60×50 miles in the Willamette Valley, Oregon and 55×55 miles in Northern Colorado. Key inputs include soil properties (texture and carbon content) and vegetation cover (forests, grasslands, and crop regions), which are described by surface datasets that are used as inputs to the land model.

For more information on CESM, visit: https://www.cesm.ucar.edu/